Fiscal stimuli in the Eurozone against a backdrop of tensions Conjoncture in France - March 2019

France ended 2018 with a moderate growth rate (+0,3% per quarter in H2) that was slightly higher than that over the first half of the year (+0,2% per quarter). Meanwhile, the international environment darkened significantly. In a context where many uncertainties remain (Brexit, protectionist tensions,…), almost all the major Eurozone countries have implemented fiscal stimulus measures in one way or another.

Eurozone economic activity is therefore likely to show a slight acceleration through to mid-2019, with 0,3% of growth per quarter. The French economy, hitherto less exposed than others to the turbulence of world trade and stimulated by a more expansionist fiscal policy than expected a few months ago, could come out quite well, at least in the short-term, with 0,4 % of growth per quarter (its mid-year growth overhang in 2019 should reach +1,1 %, after +1,5 % year on year in 2018). It should therefore be buoyed by domestic demand (Household consumption and investment, corporate investment).