15 November 2017

2017- n° 300

In October 2017, consumer prices rose by 0.1% over a month and by 1.1% year on year Consumer price index - final results - October 2017

In October 2017, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) barely recovered by 0.1% over a month, after a moderate downturn of 0.2% in September. This rebound resulted from that in food prices and a lesser drop in services prices. Contrariwise, manufactured product prices slowed down sharply after a marked rise in September (+0.2% after +0.5%). Energy prices increased barely less than in the previous month.

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices decelerated slightly: +0.1% after +0.2% in September.

Year on year, consumer prices grew by 1.1% in October after +1.0% in the previous month. This third consecutive acceleration came from a sharper increase in food prices and a lesser drop in manufactured product prices. Energy prices slowed down after two months of very sustained rise. Services prices increased in the same rate than in September.

In October 2017, the core inflation indicator (ISJ) was stable after a rise of 0.1% in September. Over a year, it rose by 0.5%, as in the three previous months. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) slightly rebounded by 0.1% after a downturn of 0.2%; year on year, it grew slightly faster than in September: +1.2% after +1.1%.

In October 2017, food prices gathered pace again sharply (+1.5% year on year after +1.1%). This rise came from a marked acceleration in fresh food prices (+4.5% year on year after +1.6%), due to a sharp rebound in vegetables prices (+11.1% after −0.3%). Excluding fresh products, food prices rose barely more than in September (+1.1% year on year after +1.0%), prices of oils and fats continued increasing (+5.6% year on year after +4.3%).

Year on year, manufactured products prices fell again less than in the previous month (−0.3% in October after −0.5% in September and −0.7% in August). This lesser drop came from that in clothing and footwear prices (−0.4% year on year after −0.7%) and in medical health product prices (−1.7 % after −1.9%). The prices of “other manufactured products” rose a little year on year (+0.1%) after a stability in September, due to an acceleration in new motor cars (+2.1% year on year after +1.2%). Over a month, the prices of “other manufactured products” slowed down to +0.1% after +0.3% in September. The monthly downturn in prices of furniture and furnishings (−0.5%) and games and toys (−0.3%) was partly offset by an increase in household appliances prices (+0.5%) and a rebound in newspapers, books and stationery prices (+0.5%).

Year on year, services prices increased by 1.0%, as in September. Tourism-related services slowed down sharply due to the shift in Toussaint school holidays. So, airfares decelerated (+2.1% after +2.5% year on year), the rebound over a month in October being less pronounced this year (+4.8% against +5.2% in 2016). Likewise, accommodation services grew slower than in September (+2.7% after +4.1% year on year). Assurance prices slowed down too (+1.8% year on year after +2.4%), due to promotional offers in October (+1.8% after +2.4%). Contrariwise, the decrease in telecommunication service prices softened (−5.1% after −5.2%). Health services prices rose by 1.8% year on year, as in the previous month.

Energy prices slowed down in October after two months of a sharp rise (+4.8% year on year after +5.1% in September), due to a slowdown in the prices of petroleum products (+7.4% after +8.3%). The prices of natural gas and town gas sharply gathered pace to +3.3% year on year, because of a price rise of 1.2% over a month. Electricity prices increased by 1.5% year on year, as in the two previous months.

Compared with the provisional estimates published on 31 October 2017, the month-on-month and year-on-year changes in the CPI and the HICP were confirmed.