23 March 2017
2017- n° 77In March 2017, the business climate in services is stable above its long-term average Monthly survey of services - March 2017
According to business managers surveyed in March 2017, the business climate in services remains favourable. The business climate composite indicator is stable and stands at 104, above its long-term average (100). Because of late businesses' answers that have been taken into account, the indicator in February has been revised upward by one point.
- Business prospects are steady at their long-term average
- Near stability of the road transport business climate
- In accommodation and food services, the business climate has fallen back just below its long-term average
- The business climate is virtually stable in information and communication
- The business climate in real estate activities is unchanged
- In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate has declined slightly
- The business climate has improved in administrative and support service activities
According to business managers surveyed in March 2017, the business climate in services remains favourable. The business climate composite indicator is stable and stands at 104, above its long-term average (100). Because of late businesses' answers that have been taken into account, the indicator in February has been revised upward by one point.
graphiqueGraph1 – Business climate composite indicator
The turning point indicator remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term outlook.
graphiqueGraph2 – Turning point indicator
Business prospects are steady at their long-term average
The balance on general outlook, which relates the assessment of business leaders over their whole sector, is stable and clearly above its long-term average. The balance on past activity, already slightly above its long-term average, has improved again. However, the balance on expected activity is virtually stable at its long-term average. The expectations on demand have decreased slightly and the corresponding balance has almost fallen back to its long-term average.
The balances on past and expected employment are unchanged and thus remain clearly above their long-term average.
The balances on past and expected selling prices have gone up slightly and stand almost at their long-term average.
The balances on past and expected investments are stable or almost. Both balances remain above their long-term average.
tableauTable1 – Economic outlook in the services sector
Average* | Dec. 16 | Jan. 17 | Feb. 17 | March 17 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 102 | 104 | 104 |
General outlook | –8 | –1 | –3 | –2 | –2 |
Past activity | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
Expected activity | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Expected demand | –1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Past selling prices | –4 | –4 | –6 | –7 | –5 |
Expected selling prices | –3 | –5 | –8 | –3 | –2 |
Past employment | 3 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 12 |
except temporary work agencies | 1 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
Expected employment | 2 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 |
except temporary work agencies | –1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
Investments | |||||
Past investments | 2 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
Expected investments | 1 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
In most subsectors, the business climate is virtually stable. However, it has declined in accommodation and food service activities, whereas it has improved markedly in administrative and support service activities.
Near stability of the road transport business climate
In road transport, the business climate is practically stable. At 107, it stands well above its long-term average. The balances on past activity and employment have improved, but those on expected activity and employment have declined. All balances remain clearly above their long-term average.
In accommodation and food services, the business climate has fallen back just below its long-term average
In accommodation and food services, the business climate has fallen back slighlty below its long-term average (99). The balance on past activity has increased significantly, but the balances on expected activity and demand have gone down sharply, returning below their long-term average.
The business climate is virtually stable in information and communication
In information and communication, the business climate remains slightly above its long-term average (101). The balance on past activity has recovered markedly. However, the balance on expected demand has deviated further from its long-term average.
The business climate in real estate activities is unchanged
In real estate activities, the business climate is stable, slightly above its long-term average (101). The balance on expected activity has recovered significantly, offsetting the decrease in the other balances.
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate has declined slightly
The business climate in professional, scientific and technical activities has gone down by one point, mostly because of the balance on general outlook, which has slightly declined. The other balances are stable or almost. However, at 104, the business climate remains above its long-term average.
The business climate has improved in administrative and support service activities
In administrative and support service activities, the business climate has increased anew. At 109, it stands clearly above its long-term average. The balances on expected activity and demand have gone up sharply. All balances are much higher than their long-term average, particularly those on employment.
tableauTable2 – Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Dec. 16 | Jan. 17 | Feb. 17 | March 17 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Road transport (8%) | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 108 | 107 | 108 | 107 |
Past activity | –8 | –6 | –3 | 2 | 5 |
Expected activity | –9 | 2 | 0 | 6 | –2 |
Expected demand | –12 | 2 | 2 | –3 | 0 |
Past employment | –7 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
Expected employment | –10 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
General outlook | –23 | –8 | –6 | –8 | –6 |
Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 99 | 102 | 99 |
Past activity | –7 | –8 | –6 | –11 | 2 |
Expected activity | –8 | –5 | –6 | –5 | –14 |
Expected demand | –10 | –5 | –12 | –6 | –12 |
Past employment | –4 | 0 | –1 | –6 | –5 |
Expected employment | –6 | 0 | –5 | –7 | –5 |
General outlook | –14 | –9 | –16 | –11 | –14 |
Information and communication (24%) | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 103 | 100 | 100 | 101 |
Past activity | 8 | 12 | 0 | –3 | 10 |
Expected activity | 9 | 8 | –3 | 0 | 3 |
Expected demand | 10 | 15 | 1 | 1 | –4 |
Past employment | 6 | 17 | 23 | 14 | 7 |
Expected employment | 10 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 14 |
General outlook | 0 | –1 | –1 | –2 | 0 |
Real estate activities (13%) | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 102 | 101 | 101 |
Past activity | 7 | 17 | 9 | 11 | 5 |
Expected activity | 8 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 11 |
Expected demand | 1 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
Past employment | 3 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 4 |
Expected employment | 2 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 3 |
General outlook | –2 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 102 | 105 | 104 |
Past activity | –1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Expected activity | –2 | 1 | –6 | –2 | –1 |
Expected demand | –6 | –2 | –2 | 1 | 0 |
Past employment | 1 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 7 |
Expected employment | 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
General outlook | –9 | –2 | –4 | –2 | –4 |
Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 107 | 106 | 106 | 109 |
Past activity | 6 | 7 | 15 | 18 | 17 |
Expected activity | 5 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 15 |
Expected demand | 3 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 13 |
Past employment | 9 | 18 | 23 | 26 | 27 |
Expected employment | 7 | 22 | 20 | 26 | 29 |
General outlook | –5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicators: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion : average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source : INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (2017) (pdf,177 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services