23 February 2017

2017- n° 46

In February 2017, the business climate in manufacturing remains well above normal Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - February 2017

According to the business managers surveyed in February 2017, the business climate in industry has gained one point. At 107, it stands at its highest level since June 2011, significantly above its long-term average (100).

The turning-point indicator remains in the zone indicating a further favourable economic outlook.

In February 2017, the balance of opinion on past activity has fallen back again albeit remaining slightly above normal. However, business managers are more upbeat on their personal production expectations: the balance has increased for the third month in a row and has reached its highest level since January 2008, significantly above its mean.

Business managers are a little less upbeat on general production prospects for the sector. The corresponding balance has slightly decreased but remains significantly above its long-term average, that it has exceeded since February 2015.

In February, the balances on global and export order books have slightly increased and stand at their highest level since June 2011, significantly above normal.

Finally, slightly more industrialists than in January consider that finished-goods inventories are below normal: the corresponding balance, already below its long-term average, has deviated a little more.

The slight increase of the business climate in industry mainly comes from an improvement in the machinery and equipment industry, partly offset by a decrease in the manufacture of food products and beverages.

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the business climate has decreased by two points in February but remains above its long-term average. This downturn mainly comes from a decrease in the balance of opinion on past activity.

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate, already at its highest level since June 2011 and significantly above normal, has increased by one point. This improvement mainly stems from the balance on global order books.

In machinery and equipment, the business climate has bounced back hitting 104, its highest level since July 2011. In electrical equipment, it is virtually stable at its highest level since August 2011. However, in the computer, electronic and optical product industry, the climate has slightlydeteriorated. Those three sub-sectors climates are above normal in February.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate is stable significantly above normal. A decrease in the balance on past activity is offset by an increase in that on personal production expectations.

In the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers as in other transport equipment, the business climate is stable above normal.

In overall “other manufacturing”, the business climate is stable. It had reached in January its highest level since June 2011, significantly above normal. In February, a decrease in the balance on past activity is offset by a further increase in those on order books.

In chemicals, the business climate has brightened again, hitting its highest level since May 2006, significantly above normal. In wood-paper it has slightly improved again.

It is virtually stable, significantly above normal in clothing-textiles and in rubber and plastic products, and closed to normal in “other manufacturing industries”. However, in basic metals the business climate has edged down, albeit remaining significantly above normal.