30 June 2020
2020- n° 169In April 2020, sales volume in overall trade kept falling Sales volume in wholesale and retail trade - April 2020
In April 2020, the sales volume in overall trade kept falling due to the containment (−20.1% after −18.2% in March). Compared to February, it declined by 34.6%.
In April, the sales volume collapsed again in wholesale trade (−15.7% after −13.0%), in retail trade (−18.9% after −15.6%) and in retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (−53.6% after −46.0%). Within retail trade, the sales volume decreased strongly in specialised stores (−30.6% after −27.3%) and a bit less in non-specialised stores (−10.3% after −1.0%) which includes in particular large-scale food retailing. The decline was more limited in retail trade not in stores (−2.7% after −6.0%).
With the containment of the population from March 17 to may 10 of 2020, companies’ value added tax (VAT) declarations, used for the turnover indices, have been slightly adapted by the Directorate-General for Public Accounting; therefore, the indexes of trade production published here could be revised a little bit more than usual.
The commentary shows variations of subsections by decreasing contribution to the overall variation. The contribution of a subsection depends on the extent of the change and on its weight. All data are corrected for seasonal adjustments and working days adjustments (SA-WDA).
SA-WDA models have been reestimated on a sub-period to adjust indices on the recent past, in order to provide improved fit and better robustness (SA-WDA models were until now estimated on the whole period of indices).
In April 2020, the sales volume in overall trade kept falling due to the containment (−20.1% after −18.2% in March). Compared to February, it declined by 34.6%.
In April, the sales volume collapsed again in wholesale trade (−15.7% after −13.0%), in retail trade (−18.9% after −15.6%) and in retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (−53.6% after −46.0%). Within retail trade, the sales volume decreased strongly in specialised stores (−30.6% after −27.3%) and a bit less in non-specialised stores (−10.3% after −1.0%) which includes in particular large-scale food retailing. The decline was more limited in retail trade not in stores (−2.7% after −6.0%).
The sales volume in overall trade declined sharply over the last three months (−18.2%)
Over the last three months (February to April), the sales volume in overall trade declined sharply (−18.2%) compared to the previous three months. It decreased in all sectors: in wholesale trade (−13.5%), in retail trade and in repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (−42.5%) and retail trade (−15.8%). Within retail trade, the sales volume fell in specialised stores (−27.0%) and declined less strongly in retail trade not in stores (−5.4%) and in non-specialised stores (−1.3%).
tableauSales volume in wholesale trade and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
| Motor vehicles and motorcycles - 45 | Wholesale - 46 | Retail trade - 47 | Wholesale and retail trade - G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-01 | 105.39 | 101.81 | 102.42 | 102.45 |
| 2016-02 | 104.25 | 102.01 | 103.14 | 102.63 |
| 2016-03 | 104.73 | 102.41 | 102.19 | 102.64 |
| 2016-04 | 105.95 | 101.61 | 101.7 | 102.19 |
| 2016-05 | 105.89 | 101.75 | 102.84 | 102.6 |
| 2016-06 | 105.82 | 100.23 | 102.51 | 101.61 |
| 2016-07 | 103.42 | 100.43 | 102.7 | 101.48 |
| 2016-08 | 107.78 | 100.76 | 102.6 | 102.19 |
| 2016-09 | 108.19 | 100.8 | 102.84 | 102.34 |
| 2016-10 | 107.2 | 100.94 | 104.75 | 102.86 |
| 2016-11 | 110.66 | 103.61 | 103.88 | 104.58 |
| 2016-12 | 109.62 | 102.15 | 104.06 | 103.66 |
| 2017-01 | 110.59 | 102.25 | 105.07 | 104.14 |
| 2017-02 | 111.47 | 103.04 | 105.6 | 104.87 |
| 2017-03 | 113.5 | 104.78 | 105.81 | 106.19 |
| 2017-04 | 109.25 | 102.5 | 105.26 | 104.18 |
| 2017-05 | 114.26 | 103.93 | 106.31 | 105.95 |
| 2017-06 | 114.08 | 104.72 | 105.68 | 106.19 |
| 2017-07 | 115.02 | 106.19 | 107.27 | 107.63 |
| 2017-08 | 114.43 | 105.42 | 106.08 | 106.76 |
| 2017-09 | 116.36 | 106.01 | 109.21 | 108.27 |
| 2017-10 | 117.71 | 104.22 | 106.17 | 106.51 |
| 2017-11 | 117.78 | 106.25 | 109.66 | 108.72 |
| 2017-12 | 121.5 | 106.82 | 108.37 | 109.14 |
| 2018-01 | 117.11 | 105.13 | 107.73 | 107.42 |
| 2018-02 | 116.87 | 105.58 | 108.67 | 107.93 |
| 2018-03 | 118.92 | 105.5 | 110.34 | 108.64 |
| 2018-04 | 118.9 | 105.78 | 108.08 | 108.13 |
| 2018-05 | 119.11 | 107.35 | 109.85 | 109.58 |
| 2018-06 | 120.31 | 107.36 | 110.02 | 109.79 |
| 2018-07 | 118.44 | 105.56 | 109.79 | 108.45 |
| 2018-08 | 118.84 | 107.17 | 110.54 | 109.65 |
| 2018-09 | 118.27 | 105.17 | 109.96 | 108.25 |
| 2018-10 | 120.22 | 108.54 | 111.42 | 110.87 |
| 2018-11 | 118.13 | 107.31 | 110.76 | 109.71 |
| 2018-12 | 111.83 | 107.48 | 110.16 | 108.82 |
| 2019-01 | 121.74 | 107.81 | 110.73 | 110.44 |
| 2019-02 | 122.12 | 109.06 | 112.27 | 111.67 |
| 2019-03 | 121.25 | 108.78 | 111.61 | 111.2 |
| 2019-04 | 121.38 | 109.83 | 112.47 | 112.08 |
| 2019-05 | 121.91 | 109.95 | 112.33 | 112.17 |
| 2019-06 | 122.44 | 109.19 | 112.78 | 111.93 |
| 2019-07 | 123.56 | 109.51 | 111.38 | 111.85 |
| 2019-08 | 124.66 | 110.48 | 114.91 | 113.59 |
| 2019-09 | 124.17 | 110.28 | 112.87 | 112.81 |
| 2019-10 | 123.49 | 110.56 | 113.09 | 112.95 |
| 2019-11 | 124.76 | 110.25 | 114.34 | 113.3 |
| 2019-12 | 123.75 | 109.54 | 112.91 | 112.34 |
| 2020-01 | 123.39 | 110.79 | 113.65 | 113.24 |
| 2020-02 | 119.35 | 109.87 | 113.59 | 112.17 |
| 2020-03 | 64.43 | 95.6 | 95.88 | 91.72 |
| 2020-04 | 29.93 | 80.64 | 77.71 | 73.32 |
graphiqueSales volume in wholesale trade and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
- Sources: DGFiP, INSEE
The sales volume declined by 17.2% over a year
The sales volume in overall trade declined strongly by 17.2% over a year. It decreased in all sectors: in wholesale trade (−12.7%), in trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (−41.4%) and in retail trade (−14.6%). Within retail trade, it slumped in specialised stores (−25.6%) whereas it declined more moderately in retail trade not in stores (−4.4%) and in non-specialised stores (−0.8%).
tableauSales volume in wholesale trade and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
| NACE Classification | Weight | Change in % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr/Mar | Mar/ Feb. | q-o-q(1) | y-o-y(2) | ||
| G Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motorvehicles and motorcycles | 10000 | -20.1 | -18.2 | -18.2 | -17.2 |
| 45 Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehiclesand motorcycles | 1272 | -53.6 | -46.0 | -42.5 | -41.4 |
| 46 Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles andmotorcycles | 5777 | -15.7 | -13.0 | -13.5 | -12.7 |
| 47 Retail trade, except of motor vehicles andmotorcycles | 2952 | -18.9 | -15.6 | -15.8 | -14.6 |
| 471 Retail sale in non-specialised stores | 1109 | -10.3 | -1.0 | -1.3 | -0.8 |
| 472 to 477 Retail sale in specialised stores | 1622 | -30.6 | -27.3 | -27.0 | -25.6 |
| 478 and 479 Retail trade not in stores | 221 | -2.7 | -6.0 | -5.4 | -4.4 |
- (1) Quarter-on-quarter: last three months /previous three months.
- (2) Year-on-year: last three months / same three months of the previous year.
- The codes correspond to different levels of aggregation of the classification NAF rev.2
- Sources: DGFiP, INSEE
In April, the sales volume in overall trade declined sharply
In April, the sales volume kept falling in wholesale trade (−15.7% after −13.0%), in particular in household goods (−28.0% after −9.1%), in other machinery, equipment and supplies (−22.1% after −23.1%) and in food, beverages and tobacco (−13.3% after −8.1%). By contrast, it bounced back in information and communication equipment (+1.3% after −13.3%) and in agricultural, raw materials and live animals (+1.2% after −5.4%).
The sales volume slumped again in retail trade (−18.9% after −15.6%), particularly in sale of other goods in specialised stores (−29.8% after −22.8%) and in automotive fuel (−47.4% after −27.9%). In non-specialised stores, where the decline was slowed down in March by the resistance of food purchasing, the sales volume decreased sharply (−10.3% after −1.0%). By contrast, the decline was more moderate in retail trade not in stores (−2.7% after −6.0%) which includes e-commerce..
The sales volume kept falling in trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (−53.6% after −46.0%), particularly in sale of motor vehicles (−63.5% after −51.7%) with the closing of car dealers.
Compared to February, the sales volume plunged sharply in specialised store (−49.6%) and in sale of motor vehicles (−82.4%). Conversely, it decreased more moderately in wholesale of agricultural raw materials (−4.3%), in retail sale of food (−9.3%) and in retail trade not in stores (−8.5%).
tableauSales volume in wholesale trade and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
| Nace Classification | Weight | Apr 2020 | Change in % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr/Mar | Mar/ Feb. | Apr/Feb. | |||
| G Wolesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles | 10000 | 73.3 | -20.1 | -18.2 | -34.6 |
| 45 Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and moto. | 1272 | 29.9 | -53.6 | -46.0 | -74.9 |
| 451 Sale of motor vehicles | 850 | 22.0 | -63.5 | -51.7 | -82.4 |
| 452 Maintenance and repair of motor vehicles | 89 | 50.7 | -33.2 | -30.2 | -53.4 |
| 453 Sale of motor vehicle parts and accessories | 306 | 45.7 | -37.2 | -32.8 | -57.8 |
| 454 Sale, maintenance and repair of moto. and related parts and accessories | 27 | 32.8 | -48.6 | -44.2 | -71.3 |
| 46 Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and moto. | 5777 | 80.6 | -15.7 | -13.0 | -26.6 |
| 461 Wholesale on a fee or contract basis | 813 | 91.9 | -11.5 | -9.7 | -20.1 |
| 462 Wholesale of agricultural raw materials and live animals | 390 | 92.8 | 1.2 | -5.4 | -4.3 |
| 463 Wholesale of food, beverages and tobacco | 1029 | 83.2 | -13.3 | -8.1 | -20.3 |
| 464 Wholesale of household goods | 1130 | 72.6 | -28.0 | -9.1 | -34.5 |
| 465 Wholesale of information and communication equipment | 331 | 110.4 | 1.3 | -13.3 | -12.2 |
| 466 Wholesale of other machinery, equipmt and supplies | 716 | 68.9 | -22.1 | -23.1 | -40.1 |
| 467 Other specialised wholesale | 1132 | 71.8 | -17.4 | -17.3 | -31.7 |
| 469 Non specialised wholesale trade | 236 | 85.1 | -7.3 | -22.0 | -27.8 |
| 47 Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and moto. | 2952 | 77.7 | -18.9 | -15.6 | -31.6 |
| 471 Non-specialised stores | 1109 | 100.3 | -10.3 | -1.0 | -11.1 |
| 472 to 477 Specialised stores | 1622 | 56.0 | -30.6 | -27.3 | -49.6 |
| 472 Retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco | 155 | 111.5 | -1.6 | -7.8 | -9.3 |
| 473 Retail sale of automotive fuel | 224 | 35.4 | -47.4 | -27.9 | -62.1 |
| 474 Retail sale of information and communication equipmt | 65 | 51.1 | -43.8 | -33.3 | -62.5 |
| 475 Retail sale of other household equipment | 310 | 43.0 | -32.7 | -41.4 | -60.6 |
| 476 Retail sale of cultural and recreation goods | 118 | 25.9 | -57.5 | -44.3 | -76.3 |
| 477 Retail sale of other goods | 750 | 61.3 | -29.8 | -22.8 | -45.8 |
| 478 et 479 Retail trade not in stores | 221 | 123.5 | -2.7 | -6.0 | -8.5 |
- (1) Quarter-on-quarter: last three months /previous three months.
- Sources: DGFiP, INSEE
Forecast
According to the first early estimates, the sales volume in retail trade except of motor vehicles and motorcycles should increase strongly in May 2020 (+25.6%). From March to May, it should decrease by 19.4% compared to the same period one year earlier.
Revisions
The variation in the sales volume of overall trade in March 2020 has been revised slightly upwards, at −18.2% instead of −18.4% initially published.
tableauRevision of variations
| Mar/Feb. | Feb./Jan. | Jan./Dec. | Q1 2020/Q4 2019 | 2019/2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G Overall trade | 0.12 | -0.12 | -0.06 | -0.05 | 0.01 |
| Raw series | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.01 |
| SA-WDA parameters | 0.15 | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.03 | 0.00 |
- How to read: in the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, the SA-WDA variation between February and March 2020 is revised by +0.12 points. -0.03 points are due to the raw series' revision and +0.15 points to the new calculation of the SA-WDA parameters.
- Sources: DGFiP, INSEE
For further information
Next issue: 24 July 2020 at 12h00
Documentation
Sales volume index in trade (pdf,35 Ko)
La note méthodologique simplifiee_anglais (pdf,28 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
Next issue: 24 July 2020 at 12h00
Time series: Sales volume in wholesale and retail trade
Time series: Turnover index in wholesale and retail trade
