29 May 2020
N° 2020-134

In Q1 2020, household gross disposable income held steady and their savings jumped despite the 5.3% drop in GDP.Quarterly national accounts - detailed figures - first quarter 2020

In Q1 2020, real gross domestic product (GDP)* fell sharply: -5.3% after -0.1% in Q4 2019, thus a revision of +0.5% compared with the first estimate published in April.

Household consumption expenditure recorded an unprecedented drop (-5.6% after +0.3%). Total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) fell even more sharply (-10.5% after +0.1%). All in all, total domestic demand (excluding changes in inventories) contracted: it contributed -6.0 points to GDP growth.

Imports fell (-5.7% after -0.7%), but less sharply than exports which fell by 6.1% (after -0.4% in Q4 2019). Overall, the contribution of foreign trade balance to GDP growth was zero, after +0.1 points in the previous quarter. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.6 points after -0.5 points).

* Volumes are measured at chain-linked and seasonally and working-day adjusted prices of the previous year (seasonally and working-day adjusted).

Informations rapides
No 134
Paru le : Paru le 29/05/2020
Prochaine parution le : 28/08/2020 at 08:45 - second quarter 2020
Informations rapides  No 134 - May 2020
Warning

Detailed results of accounts in Q1 take into account economic policy measures that have been implemented to contain the effects Covid-19 pandemic with information available at this stage. The interpretation of sectoral accounts as well as methodical changes are detailed in the note attached to this release. Given the strong developments expected for the following quarters, the overhangs for the year 2020, which imply a null evolution for the rest of the year, cannot be interpreted. As such, they are not published in this estimate.

In Q1 2020, real gross domestic product (GDP)* fell sharply: -5.3% after -0.1% in Q4 2019, thus a revision of +0.5% compared with the first estimate published in April.

Household consumption expenditure recorded an unprecedented drop (-5.6% after +0.3%). Total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) fell even more sharply (-10.5% after +0.1%). All in all, total domestic demand (excluding changes in inventories) contracted: it contributed -6.0 points to GDP growth.

Imports fell (-5.7% after -0.7%), but less sharply than exports which fell by 6.1% (after -0.4% in Q4 2019). Overall, the contribution of foreign trade balance to GDP growth was zero, after +0.1 points in the previous quarter. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.6 points after -0.5 points).

* Volumes are measured at chain-linked and seasonally and working-day adjusted prices of the previous year (seasonally and working-day adjusted).

GDP - SA-WDA

GDP - SA-WDA ()
PIB
2005-Q1 492265
2005-Q2 493240
2005-Q3 495762
2005-Q4 499503
2006-Q1 503269
2006-Q2 508351
2006-Q3 508422
2006-Q4 512545
2007-Q1 516216
2007-Q2 520254
2007-Q3 522010
2007-Q4 523278
2008-Q1 525525
2008-Q2 523086
2008-Q3 521438
2008-Q4 514239
2009-Q1 505592
2009-Q2 505072
2009-Q3 505881
2009-Q4 509600
2010-Q1 511505
2010-Q2 514129
2010-Q3 517150
2010-Q4 520777
2011-Q1 526159
2011-Q2 526373
2011-Q3 527884
2011-Q4 529162
2012-Q1 529784
2012-Q2 528746
2012-Q3 529715
2012-Q4 529325
2013-Q1 529201
2013-Q2 532774
2013-Q3 532859
2013-Q4 535546
2014-Q1 535963
2014-Q2 536552
2014-Q3 539059
2014-Q4 539801
2015-Q1 542547
2015-Q2 542234
2015-Q3 544066
2015-Q4 544666
2016-Q1 548586
2016-Q2 547222
2016-Q3 548445
2016-Q4 551622
2017-Q1 556197
2017-Q2 560111
2017-Q3 564061
2017-Q4 568793
2018-Q1 569723
2018-Q2 570810
2018-Q3 572807
2018-Q4 576465
2019-Q1 579378
2019-Q2 580857
2019-Q3 582076
2019-Q4 581562
2020-Q1 550488

GDP - SA-WDA

  • Source : Insee

GDP and its main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
GDP and its main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2019
GDP 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -5.3 1.5
Imports 0.0 0.6 -0.7 -5.7 2.6
Household consumption expenditure 0.3 0.5 0.3 -5.6 1.5
General government’s consumption expenditure 0.5 0.6 0.5 -2.0 1.7
GFCF 1.4 1.2 0.1 -10.5 4.3
Exports -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -6.1 1.8
Contributions:
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.6 0.7 0.3 -6.0 2.2
Inventory changes -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 0.6 -0.4
Net foreign trade -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.3
  • This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
  • Source: Insee

Production, consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2019
Production of branches 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -5 1.5
Goods -0.4 -0.6 -1.4 -5.3 -0.3
Manufactured industry -0.6 -0.6 -1.6 -6.3 -0.2
Construction 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -12.1 2.6
Market services 0.4 0.3 0.1 -4.7 2.2
Non-market services 0.3 0.5 0.5 -1.7 1.2
Household consumption 0.3 0.5 0.3 -5.6 1.5
Food products 0.3 -0.6 0.2 2.8 -1.3
Energy 0.8 -0.1 -0.9 -4.3 -0.1
Engineered goods -0.6 1.7 1.0 -16.1 1.7
Services 0.4 0.4 0.4 -4.8 2.0
GFCF 1.4 1.2 0.1 -10.5 4.3
Manufactured goods 0.9 1.2 -0.6 -13.9 4.0
Construction 1.4 0.9 -0.1 -13.8 3.7
Market services 1.6 1.6 0.6 -4.5 5.3
  • Source: Insee

Household gross disposable income fell slightly

Household gross disposable income (GDI) decreased slightly (-0.1% after +0.9%): the decrease in value added produced by sole proprietors was partly offset by subsidies from the solidarity fund, so that their mixed income fell by 1.0%. With the recourse to the partial activity scheme, the wage bill received by households fell sharply (-1.8% after +0.7%), which was offset by a strong acceleration in social benefits in cash (+2.8% after +0.4%). Taxes on income and wealth fell (-1.5% after -2.9%): despite the technical rebound following the reduction in housing tax at the end of 2019, the reform of the income tax scale and the adjustment of taxes to the fall in income received supported disposable income. In addition, social contributions paid by households fell (-1.4% after +0.9%) with the decline in the wage bill.

Household consumption prices continued to increase (+0.3% after +0.2%). Overall, the decline in purchasing power of household GDI remained limited (-0.4% after +0.7%) given the scale of the fall in activity. Measured by consumption unit to bring it to an individual level, it fell by -0.5% (after +0.5%). At the same time, household consumption fell (-5.6% after +0.3%), resulting in a sharp rise of the saving rate to 19.6% after 15.1% in Q4 2019.

Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2019
HDI 0.3 0.7 0.9 -0.1 3.1
HDI (purchasing power) -0.1 0.5 0.7 -0.4 2.1
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) -0.2 0.4 0.5 -0.5 1.5
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.0 0.5 0.6 -0.7 2.0
Saving rate (level) 14.7 14.8 15.1 19.6 14.9
Financial saving rate (level) 4.4 4.3 4.6 10.4 4.6
  • * cu: consumption unit
  • Source: Insee

Non-financial corporation profit ratio fell sharply

In Q1 2020, non-financial corporation profit ratio (NFCs) fell sharply and reached its low point in 2013. It stood at 29.4% after 33.5%, a decline of 4.1 points. This decline was mainly due to the fall in value added in Q1 and the end of the Competitiveness and employment tax credit (CICE) in 2020. Nevertheless, the decline in the wage bill and related social contributions reduced this decline.

Ratios of non-financial corporations’s account

level (in percent), WDA-SA data
Ratios of non-financial corporations’s account (level (in percent), WDA-SA data)
2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2019
Profit share 33.2 33.2 33.5 29.4 33.2
Investment ratio 24.5 24.7 24.7 24.2 24.5
Savings ratio 23.2 22.8 24.0 19.8 23.2
Self-financing ratio 94.8 92.5 96.9 81.8 94.7
  • Source: Insee

In Q1 2020, the public deficit deteriorated sharply

In Q1 2020 the public deficit increased by 1.1 points: 4.8% of GDP after 3.7% in Q4 2019. Revenues continued to decline (-2.4% after -1.2%): the income tax cut came into effect in 2020, to which are added reductions in tax revenues linked to the decline in economic activity (decrease of the due amounts of VAT, income taxes, corporate taxes and social contributions, while the delay granted in tax and contributions payment are not recorded, see methodological note). At the same time, government expenditures fell (-0.5% after +0.6%), with the end of the CICE and the decline in investment expenditure and despite the increase in social benefits paid.

Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

level, WDA-SA data
Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations (level, WDA-SA data)
2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2019
In billions of euros
Total expenditure 335.8 338.1 340.1 338.3 1347.9
Total receipts 318.9 321.6 317.8 310.1 1275.0
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -16.9 -16.5 -22.3 -28.2 -72.8
In % of GDP
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -2.8 -2.7 -3.7 -4.8 -3.0
  • Source: Insee

Revisions

GDP growth in Q1 2020 was revised upwards by 0.5 points compared to the first estimate. This unusually large revision was due to the replacement of estimates for March, which were heavily affected by the lockdown measures, by the usual indicators, particularly in transport services and investment in services. In addition, a larger revision compared to the previous estimate is typical at this time of year: it results from the benchmarking on the annual accounts revised on years 2017 to 2019 and from the updates of seasonal and working day adjustments as well as various methodological improvements.

Further information

Next publication : 31 July 31 2020 at 07:30 am

Documentation

Methodology ( pdf, 125 Ko)


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