30 April 2020
2020In Q1 2020, GDP dropped by –5.8% Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - first quarter 2020
In Q1 2020, GDP in volume terms fell sharply: –5.8%, the biggest drop in the series’ record, since 1949. In particular, it is bigger than the ones recorded in Q1 2009 (–1.6%) or in Q2 1968 (–5.3%). GDP’s negative evolution in Q1 2020 is primarily linked to the shut-down of “non-essential” activities in the context of the implementation of the lockdown since mid-March.
Household consumption expenditures dropped (–6.1%), as did total gross fixed capital formation in a more pronounced manner (GFCF: –11.8%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes fell sharply: it contributed to –6.6 points to GDP growth.
Exports also fell this quarter (–6.5%) along with imports (–5.9%), in a less pronounced manner. All in all, the foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: –0.2 points, after –0.1 points the previous quarter. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.9 points).
The methods used to estimate the first release of quarterly accounts have been modified to take into account the lockdown of the French population since mid-March in the context of the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic. These changes are detailed in the methodological note attached to this release (https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/fichier/4485040/Compte_m_PET12020.pdf). However, this first estimate remains fragile and is likely to be revised in the next releases of quarterly accounts. Furthermore, given the strong evolutions expected for the following quarters, the overhangs for the year 2020, which imply a null evolution for the rest of the year, cannot be interpreted. As such, they are not published in this estimate.
In Q1 2020, GDP in volume terms fell sharply: –5.8%, the biggest drop in the series’ record, since 1949. In particular, it is bigger than the ones recorded in Q1 2009 (–1.6%) or in Q2 1968 (–5.3%). GDP’s negative evolution in Q1 2020 is primarily linked to the shut-down of “non-essential” activities in the context of the implementation of the lockdown since mid-March.
Household consumption expenditures dropped (–6.1%), as did total gross fixed capital formation in a more pronounced manner (GFCF: –11.8%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes fell sharply: it contributed to –6.6 points to GDP growth.
Exports also fell this quarter (–6.5%) along with imports (–5.9%), in a less pronounced manner. All in all, the foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: –0.2 points, after –0.1 points the previous quarter. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.9 points).
tableauGDP and its main components
| Consumption | GFCF | Inventory changes | Net foreign trade | GDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005-Q1 | 0.36 | 0.13 | 0.16 | -0.41 | 0.2 |
| 2005-Q2 | 0.27 | 0.16 | -0.19 | -0.06 | 0.2 |
| 2005-Q3 | 0.37 | 0.2 | -0.25 | 0.17 | 0.5 |
| 2005-Q4 | 0.39 | 0.12 | 0.46 | -0.23 | 0.7 |
| 2006-Q1 | 0.61 | 0.13 | -0.3 | 0.36 | 0.8 |
| 2006-Q2 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1.0 |
| 2006-Q3 | -0.04 | 0.12 | 0.13 | -0.23 | 0.0 |
| 2006-Q4 | 0.59 | 0.37 | 0.15 | -0.36 | 0.8 |
| 2007-Q1 | 0.45 | 0.39 | 0.09 | -0.14 | 0.8 |
| 2007-Q2 | 0.64 | 0.29 | 0.03 | -0.22 | 0.7 |
| 2007-Q3 | 0.56 | 0.28 | -0.24 | -0.25 | 0.4 |
| 2007-Q4 | 0.23 | 0.1 | -0.05 | -0.06 | 0.2 |
| 2008-Q1 | -0.21 | 0.32 | -0.07 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 2008-Q2 | 0.05 | -0.22 | 0.0 | -0.28 | -0.5 |
| 2008-Q3 | 0.09 | -0.23 | 0.11 | -0.29 | -0.3 |
| 2008-Q4 | 0.04 | -0.72 | -0.33 | -0.4 | -1.4 |
| 2009-Q1 | 0.09 | -0.95 | -0.75 | -0.01 | -1.6 |
| 2009-Q2 | 0.51 | -0.53 | -0.59 | 0.52 | -0.1 |
| 2009-Q3 | 0.16 | -0.22 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.2 |
| 2009-Q4 | 0.61 | 0.13 | 0.95 | -1.01 | 0.7 |
| 2010-Q1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.76 | 0.77 | 0.4 |
| 2010-Q2 | 0.18 | 0.25 | 0.37 | -0.28 | 0.5 |
| 2010-Q3 | 0.39 | 0.26 | 0.35 | -0.41 | 0.6 |
| 2010-Q4 | 0.46 | 0.15 | -0.18 | 0.28 | 0.7 |
| 2011-Q1 | 0.45 | 0.01 | 1.13 | -0.55 | 1.0 |
| 2011-Q2 | -0.63 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.52 | 0.1 |
| 2011-Q3 | 0.12 | 0.04 | -0.09 | 0.17 | 0.2 |
| 2011-Q4 | -0.12 | 0.32 | -0.64 | 0.71 | 0.3 |
| 2012-Q1 | 0.27 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.08 | 0.1 |
| 2012-Q2 | 0.0 | -0.18 | -0.16 | 0.16 | -0.2 |
| 2012-Q3 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.14 | -0.07 | 0.2 |
| 2012-Q4 | 0.17 | -0.07 | -0.17 | 0.01 | -0.1 |
| 2013-Q1 | 0.16 | -0.2 | 0.04 | -0.03 | 0.0 |
| 2013-Q2 | 0.28 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| 2013-Q3 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.26 | -0.33 | 0.0 |
| 2013-Q4 | 0.48 | 0.14 | -0.05 | -0.11 | 0.5 |
| 2014-Q1 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.38 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2014-Q2 | 0.36 | -0.02 | 0.2 | -0.38 | 0.2 |
| 2014-Q3 | 0.37 | 0.01 | 0.11 | -0.01 | 0.5 |
| 2014-Q4 | 0.26 | -0.07 | -0.08 | -0.01 | 0.1 |
| 2015-Q1 | 0.28 | 0.2 | 0.18 | -0.21 | 0.5 |
| 2015-Q2 | 0.15 | -0.17 | -0.43 | 0.4 | -0.1 |
| 2015-Q3 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.51 | -0.61 | 0.4 |
| 2015-Q4 | 0.06 | 0.24 | 0.32 | -0.41 | 0.2 |
| 2016-Q1 | 0.68 | 0.21 | -0.35 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
| 2016-Q2 | 0.18 | -0.03 | -0.71 | 0.26 | -0.3 |
| 2016-Q3 | 0.1 | 0.08 | 0.43 | -0.4 | 0.2 |
| 2016-Q4 | 0.57 | 0.21 | -0.37 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| 2017-Q1 | 0.22 | 0.54 | 0.74 | -0.69 | 0.8 |
| 2017-Q2 | 0.27 | 0.21 | -0.6 | 0.78 | 0.7 |
| 2017-Q3 | 0.45 | 0.26 | 0.13 | -0.17 | 0.7 |
| 2017-Q4 | 0.08 | 0.2 | 0.06 | 0.43 | 0.8 |
| 2018-Q1 | 0.19 | 0.02 | -0.08 | 0.11 | 0.2 |
| 2018-Q2 | -0.1 | 0.18 | 0.12 | -0.03 | 0.2 |
| 2018-Q3 | 0.24 | 0.18 | -0.38 | 0.23 | 0.3 |
| 2018-Q4 | 0.26 | 0.2 | -0.17 | 0.22 | 0.5 |
| 2019-Q1 | 0.31 | 0.17 | 0.2 | -0.31 | 0.4 |
| 2019-Q2 | 0.19 | 0.32 | -0.24 | 0.03 | 0.3 |
| 2019-Q3 | 0.34 | 0.28 | -0.12 | -0.25 | 0.3 |
| 2019-Q4 | 0.27 | 0.01 | -0.45 | 0.09 | -0.1 |
| 2020-Q1 | -3.8 | -2.79 | 0.91 | -0.17 | -5.8 |
graphiqueGDP and its main components
- Source: INSEE
tableauGDP and its main components
| 2019 Q2 | 2019 Q3 | 2019 Q4 | 2020 Q1 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -5.8 | 1.3 |
| Imports | -0.2 | 0.6 | -0.3 | -5.9 | 2.3 |
| Household consumption expenditure | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -6.1 | 1.3 |
| General government’s consumption expenditure | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | -2.4 | 1.3 |
| GFCF | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.0 | -11.8 | 3.7 |
| Exports | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -6.5 | 2.0 |
| Contributions: | |||||
| Internal demand excluding inventory changes | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | -6.6 | 1.8 |
| Inventory changes | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 0.9 | -0.4 |
| Net foreign trade | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
- This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
- Source: Insee
Total production declined sharply
Overall production of goods and services declined sharply (–5.5%). It fell the hardest in construction (–12,6%), while output in goods declined –4.8% and output in manufactured goods dropped –5.6%. Output in market services declined by –5.7% overall.
tableauProduction, consumption and GFCF: main components
| 2019 Q2 | 2019 Q3 | 2019 Q4 | 2020 Q1 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production of branches | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -5.5 | 1.6 |
| Goods | -0.4 | -0.7 | -1.5 | -4.8 | -0.2 |
| Manufactured industry | -0.7 | -0.7 | -1.5 | -5.8 | -0.1 |
| Construction | 0.7 | 0.5 | -0.4 | -12.6 | 2.2 |
| Market services | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | -5.7 | 2.5 |
| Non-market services | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | -2.1 | 1.4 |
| Household consumption | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -6.1 | 1.3 |
| Food products | 0.0 | -0.6 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -1.8 |
| Energy | 0.6 | -0.2 | -1.0 | -4.8 | -0.2 |
| Engineered goods | -0.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | -16.3 | 1.4 |
| Services | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -5.2 | 1.8 |
| GFCF | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.0 | -11.8 | 3.7 |
| Manufactured goods | 0.9 | 1.1 | -0.9 | -13.0 | 3.8 |
| Construction | 1.1 | 0.7 | -0.1 | -13.8 | 2.4 |
| Market services | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | -8.8 | 5.2 |
- Source: Insee
Unprecedented drop in household consumption
Household consumption dropped in Q1 2020 (–6.1%), both in goods (–7.3%) and in services (–5.2%). With regards to goods, consumption of manufactured goods fell markedly (–16.3%) and spending on energy declined (–4.8%) notably due to mild weather and to a decline in fuel purchases in Q1. However, food expenditure rose markedly (+2.4% after +0.5%).
Investment fell substantially
In Q1 2020, total GFCF fell substantially (–11.8%). In particular, investment dropped in construction (–13.8%) in connection with the closure of building sites in the second half of March.
Foreign trade balance fell back and weighed GDP growth down slightly
In Q1 2020, imports declined markedly (–5.9%), notably in manufactured goods. Exports fell in a more pronounced manner (–6.5%). All in all, foreign trade contributed negatively to GDP growth this quarter (–0.2% after –0.1%).
Changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth
In Q1 2020, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.9% after –0.4%), especially in manufactured goods.
tableauHouseholds’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account
| 2019 Q2 | 2019 Q3 | 2019 Q4 | 2020 Q1 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDI | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 3.2 | |
| HDI (purchasing power) | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 2.1 | |
| HDI by cu* (purchasing power) | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.5 | |
| Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.9 | |
| Saving rate (level) | 14.7 | 14.7 | 15.1 | 14.9 | |
| Financial saving rate (level) | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
- * cu: consumption unit
- Source: Insee
tableauRatios of non-financial corporations’s account
| 2019 Q2 | 2019 Q3 | 2019 Q4 | 2020 Q1 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit share | 32.8 | 32.9 | 33.0 | 32.8 | |
| Investment ratio | 24.5 | 24.7 | 24.8 | 24.6 | |
| Savings ratio | 24.1 | 23.5 | 24.4 | 23.9 | |
| Self-financing ratio | 98.3 | 95.0 | 98.4 | 97.3 |
- Source: Insee
tableauExpenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
| 2019 Q2 | 2019 Q3 | 2019 Q4 | 2020 Q1 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In billions of euros | |||||
| Total expenditure | 336.5 | 338.4 | 339.8 | 1348.9 | |
| Total receipts | 318.6 | 322.4 | 318.9 | 1276.0 | |
| Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) | -17.9 | -16.1 | -20.9 | -72.9 | |
| In % of GDP | |||||
| Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) | -3.0 | -2.6 | -3.4 | -3.0 | |
- Source: Insee
Revisions
The GDP growth estimate for Q4 2019 is confirmed at –0.1%. Slight revisions in different aggregates offset each other; they are mainly due to the revision of indicators and to the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients on the indicators received, March 2020 being excluded from the estimation period.
To go further
Next publication: May 29, 2020 at 08:45 a.m.
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