24 September 2020

2020- n° 241
In September 2020, the French business climate has continued to rebound, tempered by uncertainty about activity prospects Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - September 2020

In September 2020, the business climate has continued its recovery started in May, at a slower pace than in the previous months. The indicator that synthesizes it, compiled from the responses of business managers from the main market sectors, has gained two points. At 92, the business climate remains below its long-term average (100) and, a fortiori, below its relatively high pre-lockdown level (105).

This slight improvement is explained especially by the rise in the balances of opinion on the activity developments in the last three months, in services, manufacturing and building construction. It is partially offset by the decline in the balances on the general outlook of activity in services and on personal activity prospects in services and in manufacturing.

Informations rapides

N^o 241

Paru le :Paru le24/09/2020

Prochaine parution le : 25/04/2024 at 08:45 - April 2024

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Sommaire

The rise in the business climate is driven by the rebound in activity over the past three months, but the prospects for the next three months are more uncertain
The employment climate has continued to recover
Revisions
For further information

The rise in the business climate is driven by the rebound in activity over the past three months, but the prospects for the next three months are more uncertain

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Tableau

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tableauFrench business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
	French business climate composite indicator
1998-01	109.0
1998-02	110.2
1998-03	113.1
1998-04	111.0
1998-05	112.1
1998-06	113.3
1998-07	112.4
1998-08	111.6
1998-09	109.5
1998-10	106.9
1998-11	105.0
1998-12	102.2
1999-01	102.3
1999-02	102.4
1999-03	100.7
1999-04	101.6
1999-05	103.3
1999-06	102.7
1999-07	107.6
1999-08	110.5
1999-09	113.7
1999-10	115.6
1999-11	117.1
1999-12	118.5
2000-01	115.4
2000-02	115.9
2000-03	116.7
2000-04	116.5
2000-05	115.8
2000-06	117.1
2000-07	116.7
2000-08	117.3
2000-09	117.4
2000-10	116.0
2000-11	113.8
2000-12	113.2
2001-01	112.2
2001-02	112.1
2001-03	112.1
2001-04	107.1
2001-05	104.9
2001-06	104.0
2001-07	101.8
2001-08	100.5
2001-09	98.8
2001-10	94.4
2001-11	94.4
2001-12	95.0
2002-01	96.3
2002-02	97.0
2002-03	98.8
2002-04	101.9
2002-05	103.2
2002-06	102.3
2002-07	99.5
2002-08	98.7
2002-09	97.7
2002-10	96.0
2002-11	97.4
2002-12	99.8
2003-01	96.5
2003-02	95.6
2003-03	90.3
2003-04	88.3
2003-05	92.8
2003-06	92.8
2003-07	95.1
2003-08	96.0
2003-09	95.9
2003-10	96.9
2003-11	100.9
2003-12	102.2
2004-01	105.9
2004-02	105.0
2004-03	105.1
2004-04	105.9
2004-05	105.7
2004-06	105.2
2004-07	106.6
2004-08	106.8
2004-09	106.6
2004-10	107.6
2004-11	105.2
2004-12	106.3
2005-01	105.9
2005-02	106.1
2005-03	105.7
2005-04	104.9
2005-05	102.7
2005-06	103.8
2005-07	104.4
2005-08	104.2
2005-09	103.6
2005-10	106.4
2005-11	106.4
2005-12	107.7
2006-01	109.0
2006-02	107.2
2006-03	107.3
2006-04	108.0
2006-05	109.5
2006-06	109.0
2006-07	110.7
2006-08	111.0
2006-09	111.5
2006-10	111.3
2006-11	112.2
2006-12	110.6
2007-01	110.6
2007-02	112.2
2007-03	112.6
2007-04	113.3
2007-05	113.7
2007-06	114.9
2007-07	114.1
2007-08	112.8
2007-09	112.0
2007-10	111.3
2007-11	111.5
2007-12	111.1
2008-01	110.0
2008-02	108.6
2008-03	108.3
2008-04	105.6
2008-05	102.9
2008-06	100.1
2008-07	96.0
2008-08	94.7
2008-09	92.1
2008-10	83.7
2008-11	80.3
2008-12	76.7
2009-01	75.2
2009-02	72.8
2009-03	70.0
2009-04	71.1
2009-05	74.6
2009-06	77.3
2009-07	79.4
2009-08	83.1
2009-09	86.5
2009-10	89.0
2009-11	91.2
2009-12	91.7
2010-01	93.7
2010-02	94.1
2010-03	93.5
2010-04	97.5
2010-05	98.5
2010-06	98.2
2010-07	100.3
2010-08	102.6
2010-09	104.0
2010-10	105.0
2010-11	105.3
2010-12	106.9
2011-01	107.8
2011-02	108.5
2011-03	109.4
2011-04	109.2
2011-05	108.1
2011-06	108.4
2011-07	106.3
2011-08	101.2
2011-09	98.0
2011-10	96.8
2011-11	94.9
2011-12	93.5
2012-01	92.8
2012-02	92.7
2012-03	95.2
2012-04	95.9
2012-05	92.5
2012-06	91.5
2012-07	89.4
2012-08	88.9
2012-09	87.4
2012-10	85.4
2012-11	87.3
2012-12	87.9
2013-01	87.8
2013-02	87.8
2013-03	85.9
2013-04	84.5
2013-05	85.6
2013-06	86.7
2013-07	88.6
2013-08	91.7
2013-09	94.8
2013-10	94.5
2013-11	93.6
2013-12	93.6
2014-01	94.2
2014-02	94.0
2014-03	95.3
2014-04	95.2
2014-05	94.8
2014-06	93.7
2014-07	93.1
2014-08	91.9
2014-09	91.1
2014-10	91.3
2014-11	93.0
2014-12	93.3
2015-01	93.6
2015-02	94.4
2015-03	95.6
2015-04	96.6
2015-05	97.5
2015-06	98.3
2015-07	98.7
2015-08	100.2
2015-09	100.0
2015-10	100.9
2015-11	101.0
2015-12	99.5
2016-01	101.3
2016-02	100.4
2016-03	100.5
2016-04	100.5
2016-05	102.3
2016-06	100.6
2016-07	101.3
2016-08	100.9
2016-09	101.2
2016-10	101.5
2016-11	101.8
2016-12	104.0
2017-01	103.7
2017-02	104.2
2017-03	104.1
2017-04	104.4
2017-05	105.4
2017-06	106.9
2017-07	107.7
2017-08	108.7
2017-09	109.2
2017-10	109.1
2017-11	110.4
2017-12	111.4
2018-01	110.7
2018-02	109.7
2018-03	109.4
2018-04	108.5
2018-05	106.7
2018-06	106.5
2018-07	105.8
2018-08	105.3
2018-09	105.1
2018-10	104.0
2018-11	104.6
2018-12	101.7
2019-01	102.2
2019-02	103.2
2019-03	104.8
2019-04	105.4
2019-05	106.1
2019-06	106.2
2019-07	105.2
2019-08	105.5
2019-09	106.3
2019-10	105.5
2019-11	105.9
2019-12	105.1
2020-01	104.8
2020-02	105.1
2020-03	94.4
2020-04	53.4
2020-05	60.2
2020-06	78.5
2020-07	84.2
2020-08	90.4
2020-09	92.4

graphiqueFrench business climate composite indicator

tableauBusiness and employment climates

Business and employment climates
	May 20	June 20	July 20	Aug. 20	Sept. 20
Business climates
France	60	78	84	90	92
Manufacturing	71	77	82	92	96
Building construction*	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Services	52	78	88	93	95
Retail trade	63	84	88	93	95
Wholesale trade	67		79		92
Employment Climate Indicator
Employment	53	67	76	88	93

* c.f. « For further information »
Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The employment climate has continued to recover

In September 2020, the employment climate has continued to recover, for the fifth consecutive month. At 93, it has gained 5 points compared to August, but it still remains below its pre-lockdown level. This improvement in the employment climate is mainly due to the increase in the balance of opinion on the past change in staff size in most sectors (except in retail trade), in particular in services exclusive of temporary work agencies.

Graphique
Tableau

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tableauFrench employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
	French employment climate composite indicator
1998-01	102.4
1998-02	103.9
1998-03	105.7
1998-04	107.1
1998-05	107.7
1998-06	108.7
1998-07	109.9
1998-08	108.3
1998-09	106.6
1998-10	105.8
1998-11	105.5
1998-12	104.9
1999-01	104.2
1999-02	105.5
1999-03	106.5
1999-04	107.8
1999-05	108.0
1999-06	108.5
1999-07	109.2
1999-08	111.6
1999-09	114.0
1999-10	116.2
1999-11	117.0
1999-12	117.5
2000-01	117.9
2000-02	116.0
2000-03	114.3
2000-04	112.6
2000-05	116.0
2000-06	119.3
2000-07	116.6
2000-08	118.2
2000-09	119.1
2000-10	119.3
2000-11	121.2
2000-12	119.8
2001-01	117.8
2001-02	118.4
2001-03	117.5
2001-04	116.3
2001-05	112.7
2001-06	110.9
2001-07	107.5
2001-08	107.8
2001-09	107.5
2001-10	108.3
2001-11	103.1
2001-12	105.1
2002-01	102.8
2002-02	101.0
2002-03	102.6
2002-04	106.6
2002-05	104.3
2002-06	103.1
2002-07	103.9
2002-08	101.6
2002-09	98.9
2002-10	95.5
2002-11	98.5
2002-12	97.4
2003-01	98.4
2003-02	96.6
2003-03	93.2
2003-04	91.9
2003-05	91.1
2003-06	93.5
2003-07	94.4
2003-08	95.0
2003-09	95.2
2003-10	95.7
2003-11	95.0
2003-12	97.6
2004-01	99.1
2004-02	98.0
2004-03	101.1
2004-04	101.4
2004-05	104.1
2004-06	101.3
2004-07	102.1
2004-08	102.0
2004-09	101.7
2004-10	103.1
2004-11	103.3
2004-12	102.2
2005-01	102.5
2005-02	102.1
2005-03	104.7
2005-04	102.3
2005-05	103.0
2005-06	102.3
2005-07	102.8
2005-08	103.4
2005-09	103.8
2005-10	104.1
2005-11	103.9
2005-12	103.2
2006-01	104.1
2006-02	104.0
2006-03	104.7
2006-04	107.0
2006-05	108.1
2006-06	110.1
2006-07	109.8
2006-08	109.1
2006-09	108.0
2006-10	109.0
2006-11	110.4
2006-12	110.9
2007-01	109.3
2007-02	111.3
2007-03	111.0
2007-04	111.6
2007-05	113.2
2007-06	112.8
2007-07	111.1
2007-08	112.4
2007-09	113.2
2007-10	111.5
2007-11	113.0
2007-12	114.4
2008-01	113.8
2008-02	113.8
2008-03	112.2
2008-04	112.4
2008-05	108.2
2008-06	104.8
2008-07	105.6
2008-08	101.0
2008-09	99.7
2008-10	95.4
2008-11	88.5
2008-12	83.6
2009-01	81.1
2009-02	79.6
2009-03	74.0
2009-04	74.6
2009-05	73.6
2009-06	74.8
2009-07	78.5
2009-08	83.1
2009-09	82.4
2009-10	84.5
2009-11	86.7
2009-12	89.1
2010-01	90.4
2010-02	90.9
2010-03	93.4
2010-04	95.6
2010-05	97.4
2010-06	98.5
2010-07	98.9
2010-08	99.3
2010-09	100.8
2010-10	103.5
2010-11	104.5
2010-12	105.3
2011-01	103.9
2011-02	109.8
2011-03	108.9
2011-04	109.0
2011-05	110.6
2011-06	110.8
2011-07	109.2
2011-08	105.1
2011-09	103.4
2011-10	100.4
2011-11	100.5
2011-12	98.9
2012-01	97.6
2012-02	97.3
2012-03	98.9
2012-04	97.7
2012-05	95.0
2012-06	94.0
2012-07	92.5
2012-08	93.5
2012-09	91.4
2012-10	91.8
2012-11	90.3
2012-12	89.9
2013-01	92.4
2013-02	89.3
2013-03	88.5
2013-04	87.0
2013-05	86.6
2013-06	89.2
2013-07	90.3
2013-08	90.9
2013-09	92.3
2013-10	94.7
2013-11	93.1
2013-12	95.1
2014-01	95.3
2014-02	94.6
2014-03	95.5
2014-04	98.1
2014-05	97.1
2014-06	95.5
2014-07	95.9
2014-08	94.6
2014-09	94.7
2014-10	94.6
2014-11	94.5
2014-12	94.8
2015-01	94.0
2015-02	96.1
2015-03	95.5
2015-04	97.5
2015-05	97.6
2015-06	99.3
2015-07	99.8
2015-08	100.5
2015-09	100.3
2015-10	100.7
2015-11	101.6
2015-12	100.9
2016-01	102.0
2016-02	100.7
2016-03	99.7
2016-04	100.6
2016-05	102.2
2016-06	101.5
2016-07	104.0
2016-08	103.2
2016-09	104.5
2016-10	104.8
2016-11	104.9
2016-12	106.5
2017-01	105.3
2017-02	104.5
2017-03	107.3
2017-04	106.4
2017-05	107.1
2017-06	107.7
2017-07	107.2
2017-08	105.7
2017-09	106.7
2017-10	108.4
2017-11	108.2
2017-12	108.8
2018-01	109.2
2018-02	109.9
2018-03	109.7
2018-04	108.9
2018-05	109.1
2018-06	109.8
2018-07	108.2
2018-08	107.5
2018-09	107.0
2018-10	107.1
2018-11	105.3
2018-12	104.9
2019-01	105.2
2019-02	106.9
2019-03	107.1
2019-04	106.9
2019-05	105.0
2019-06	106.2
2019-07	106.0
2019-08	105.0
2019-09	105.6
2019-10	105.9
2019-11	106.5
2019-12	106.9
2020-01	104.7
2020-02	104.9
2020-03	96.2
2020-04	48.8
2020-05	53.1
2020-06	66.9
2020-07	76.4
2020-08	87.6
2020-09	92.9

graphiqueFrench employment climate composite indicator

Revisions

The French business climate and the sectoral business climates in manufacturing and in services for August 2020, as well as the sectoral business climate on wholesale trade for July 2020, have been revised downwards by one point. Those revisions are mainly explained by the inclusion of late responses from companies.

For further information

The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and building construction. It is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Specifically concerning the building industry, all the balances of opinion resulting from the survey are published in the Informations Rapides issue dedicated to this sector and in the additional series available online. However, it appeared during the health crisis that the synthetic indicator usually calculated from some of these balances of opinion tended to smooth fluctuations in activity measured in the building industry. This is why an overhaul of this synthetic indicator is currently being studied in this sector in order to, if possible, improve its predictive qualities. The French business climate indicator has continued to take into account all the sectors studied, including the building construction industry; its methodology is unchanged.

Finally, since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding units.

Next issue : 22 October 2020 at 08:45 am