24 January 2020
2020- n° 19In January 2020, more real estate developers consider that the demand for new dwellings
is high Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - January 2020
In January 2020, the real estate developers’ opinion on demand for new dwellings has continued to improve. The corresponding balance of opinion has increased for the fourth consecutive quarter, rising above its long-term average.
In January 2020, the real estate developers’ opinion on demand for new dwellings has continued to improve. The corresponding balance of opinion has increased for the fourth consecutive quarter, rising above its long-term average.
Prospects for housing starts are stable
In January 2020, the balance of opinion on prospects for housing starts for the next three months is stable at its long-term average. In detail, the balance on housing starts for sale has increased very slightly, and exceeds a little its average, while that on housing starts for rent is stable, above its own. At the same time, more developers than in October 2019 have indicated an increase in their unsold dwelling stocks. The corresponding balance has bounced back slightly and has almost reached its long-term average.
The number of real estate developers indicating an increase in the average new housing price has not faltered
Real estate developers are as still numerous as in October to indicate a rise in the average price of new dwellings for sale. The corresponding balance of opinion is stable at its highest level since April 2007, largely above its long-term average. About funding, slightly fewer developers than in October have considered that downpayment to acquire a new dwelling has increased during the last few months: the corresponding balance has weakened slightly but remains above its long-term average. Likewise, fewer developers than in the previous quarter think that the financing capacity to purchase new housing will increase over the next quarter. The corresponding balance of opinion has fallen back, while standing largely above its long-term average.
tableauReal-estate development economic outlook
Mean* | Apr. 19 | July 19 | Oct. 19 | Jan. 20 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
New dwelling demand | -9 | -20 | -12 | -9 | -5 |
Expected housing starts | -7 | -9 | -10 | -7 | -7 |
- for sale | -15 | -15 | -12 | -15 | -14 |
- for rent | 0 | 4 | -3 | 5 | 5 |
Unsold dwelling stock tendency | -26 | -28 | -21 | -30 | -27 |
Housing average price for sale | 5 | 14 | 19 | 23 | 23 |
Downpayment | -20 | -19 | -13 | -10 | -11 |
Financing capacity | -21 | -14 | -5 | 1 | -5 |
- * Mean since July 1991.
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development - INSEE
tableauNew dwelling demand tendency
New dwelling demand tendency | |
---|---|
1998-Q1 | -2.6 |
1998-Q2 | -0.8 |
1998-Q3 | -3.1 |
1998-Q4 | 16.1 |
1999-Q1 | 12.4 |
1999-Q2 | 14.2 |
1999-Q3 | 14.0 |
1999-Q4 | -3.1 |
2000-Q1 | -8.8 |
2000-Q2 | -4.9 |
2000-Q3 | -4.9 |
2000-Q4 | -3.9 |
2001-Q1 | -1.6 |
2001-Q2 | -1.4 |
2001-Q3 | -1.7 |
2001-Q4 | -10.9 |
2002-Q1 | -0.5 |
2002-Q2 | 6.7 |
2002-Q3 | 6.0 |
2002-Q4 | 6.0 |
2003-Q1 | 10.6 |
2003-Q2 | 10.1 |
2003-Q3 | 21.2 |
2003-Q4 | 25.2 |
2004-Q1 | 21.7 |
2004-Q2 | 26.3 |
2004-Q3 | 24.7 |
2004-Q4 | 29.4 |
2005-Q1 | 29.8 |
2005-Q2 | 26.3 |
2005-Q3 | 21.6 |
2005-Q4 | 20.8 |
2006-Q1 | 16.0 |
2006-Q2 | 15.4 |
2006-Q3 | 12.9 |
2006-Q4 | 11.3 |
2007-Q1 | 9.2 |
2007-Q2 | 1.4 |
2007-Q3 | 3.1 |
2007-Q4 | -1.8 |
2008-Q1 | -7.0 |
2008-Q2 | -13.7 |
2008-Q3 | -13.4 |
2008-Q4 | -33.1 |
2009-Q1 | -26.7 |
2009-Q2 | -13.8 |
2009-Q3 | -10.6 |
2009-Q4 | -8.6 |
2010-Q1 | -3.9 |
2010-Q2 | -8.5 |
2010-Q3 | -6.5 |
2010-Q4 | -0.3 |
2011-Q1 | -10.2 |
2011-Q2 | -15.1 |
2011-Q3 | -20.8 |
2011-Q4 | -22.7 |
2012-Q1 | -24.6 |
2012-Q2 | -33.6 |
2012-Q3 | -42.1 |
2012-Q4 | -47.7 |
2013-Q1 | -47.7 |
2013-Q2 | -47.7 |
2013-Q3 | -42.8 |
2013-Q4 | -42.1 |
2014-Q1 | -44.4 |
2014-Q2 | -45.7 |
2014-Q3 | -53.3 |
2014-Q4 | -51.8 |
2015-Q1 | -46.0 |
2015-Q2 | -36.7 |
2015-Q3 | -28.1 |
2015-Q4 | -26.0 |
2016-Q1 | -26.1 |
2016-Q2 | -11.9 |
2016-Q3 | -9.7 |
2016-Q4 | -5.1 |
2017-Q1 | -1.8 |
2017-Q2 | -3.6 |
2017-Q3 | -2.5 |
2017-Q4 | -4.3 |
2018-Q1 | -7.0 |
2018-Q2 | -11.1 |
2018-Q3 | -15.5 |
2018-Q4 | -20.1 |
2019-Q1 | -25.2 |
2019-Q2 | -19.8 |
2019-Q3 | -12.0 |
2019-Q4 | -8.6 |
2020-Q1 | -5.1 |
graphiqueNew dwelling demand tendency
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 24 April 2020 at 12:00 am
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 24 April 2020 at 12:00 am