22 January 2020
2020- n° 17In January 2019, the business climate in wholesale trade has deteriorated Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - January 2020
According to the managers surveyed in January 2020, the business climate in wholesale trade has deteriorated but remains favourable. The composite indicator has lost two points and stands at 104, above its long-term average (100).
- The balances of opinion regarding past activity have markedly declined
- The wholesale trade’s outlook has worsened but remains propitious
- The balances related to workforce have improved
- The balances of opinion on selling prices have risen sligthly
- Raw agricultural products and live animals
- Food products and beverages
- Household goods
- Capital goods in information and communication
- Other industrial capital goods
- Other specialised wholesale trade
- For further information
According to the managers surveyed in January 2020, the business climate in wholesale trade has deteriorated but remains favourable. The composite indicator has lost two points and stands at 104, above its long-term average (100). The November 2019 business climate indicator has been revised upwards by one point as a result of the integration of late business answers.
tableauComposite indicator
Composite indicator | |
---|---|
1998-B1 | 110.6 |
1998-B2 | 114.5 |
1998-B3 | 114.4 |
1998-B4 | 112.7 |
1998-B5 | 106.8 |
1998-B6 | 104.2 |
1999-B1 | 104.2 |
1999-B2 | 98.0 |
1999-B3 | 101.3 |
1999-B4 | 100.4 |
1999-B5 | 109.0 |
1999-B6 | 113.3 |
2000-B1 | 116.1 |
2000-B2 | 112.5 |
2000-B3 | 115.0 |
2000-B4 | 117.5 |
2000-B5 | 115.4 |
2000-B6 | 113.4 |
2001-B1 | 109.3 |
2001-B2 | 112.1 |
2001-B3 | 105.4 |
2001-B4 | 103.0 |
2001-B5 | 101.8 |
2001-B6 | 96.7 |
2002-B1 | 97.6 |
2002-B2 | 92.2 |
2002-B3 | 91.8 |
2002-B4 | 91.0 |
2002-B5 | 93.2 |
2002-B6 | 97.1 |
2003-B1 | 96.3 |
2003-B2 | 89.3 |
2003-B3 | 88.0 |
2003-B4 | 87.6 |
2003-B5 | 88.1 |
2003-B6 | 90.2 |
2004-B1 | 96.2 |
2004-B2 | 94.6 |
2004-B3 | 98.8 |
2004-B4 | 100.1 |
2004-B5 | 99.5 |
2004-B6 | 95.9 |
2005-B1 | 100.5 |
2005-B2 | 97.3 |
2005-B3 | 92.2 |
2005-B4 | 95.8 |
2005-B5 | 94.6 |
2005-B6 | 99.5 |
2006-B1 | 103.7 |
2006-B2 | 98.9 |
2006-B3 | 102.0 |
2006-B4 | 107.4 |
2006-B5 | 106.8 |
2006-B6 | 110.3 |
2007-B1 | 107.9 |
2007-B2 | 111.7 |
2007-B3 | 110.4 |
2007-B4 | 107.3 |
2007-B5 | 111.6 |
2007-B6 | 108.6 |
2008-B1 | 107.2 |
2008-B2 | 106.7 |
2008-B3 | 101.6 |
2008-B4 | 96.6 |
2008-B5 | 94.3 |
2008-B6 | 83.8 |
2009-B1 | 78.9 |
2009-B2 | 66.7 |
2009-B3 | 68.0 |
2009-B4 | 70.0 |
2009-B5 | 75.9 |
2009-B6 | 77.2 |
2010-B1 | 84.5 |
2010-B2 | 84.7 |
2010-B3 | 94.5 |
2010-B4 | 100.4 |
2010-B5 | 104.8 |
2010-B6 | 104.3 |
2011-B1 | 105.8 |
2011-B2 | 108.3 |
2011-B3 | 107.2 |
2011-B4 | 105.7 |
2011-B5 | 100.0 |
2011-B6 | 95.8 |
2012-B1 | 95.1 |
2012-B2 | 99.1 |
2012-B3 | 92.8 |
2012-B4 | 94.6 |
2012-B5 | 90.6 |
2012-B6 | 88.8 |
2013-B1 | 88.5 |
2013-B2 | 88.0 |
2013-B3 | 87.7 |
2013-B4 | 87.1 |
2013-B5 | 96.7 |
2013-B6 | 97.4 |
2014-B1 | 96.7 |
2014-B2 | 97.8 |
2014-B3 | 97.6 |
2014-B4 | 96.1 |
2014-B5 | 90.9 |
2014-B6 | 95.2 |
2015-B1 | 95.4 |
2015-B2 | 96.0 |
2015-B3 | 100.7 |
2015-B4 | 101.9 |
2015-B5 | 99.2 |
2015-B6 | 101.2 |
2016-B1 | 101.8 |
2016-B2 | 99.3 |
2016-B3 | 101.8 |
2016-B4 | 102.9 |
2016-B5 | 97.4 |
2016-B6 | 97.6 |
2017-B1 | 103.7 |
2017-B2 | 102.8 |
2017-B3 | 104.2 |
2017-B4 | 109.6 |
2017-B5 | 108.5 |
2017-B6 | 110.5 |
2018-B1 | 106.8 |
2018-B2 | 109.2 |
2018-B3 | 104.0 |
2018-B4 | 102.2 |
2018-B5 | 103.4 |
2018-B6 | 103.2 |
2019-B1 | 99.4 |
2019-B2 | 105.3 |
2019-B3 | 107.1 |
2019-B4 | 105.9 |
2019-B5 | 106.0 |
2019-B6 | 105.9 |
2020-B1 | 103.7 |
graphiqueComposite indicator
The balances of opinion regarding past activity have markedly declined
In January 2020, the balance of opinion on past sales as a whole and the balance on sales abroad have both fallen sharply, but remain somewhat above their average. The balance on total past sales has contributed the most to the deterioration in the wholesale trade’s business climate. Fewer wholesalers than in November have reported their volume of received merchandise to be larger than usual. The corresponding balance has fallen down to its mean, whereas the balance on merchandise received from abroad has been stable and above its average.
The wholesale trade’s outlook has worsened but remains propitious
After a year of almost continuous rise, the balance on general business outlook has plummeted, but remains above its average level. The balance of opinion related to ordering intentions is stable above its average, even though the balance on intentions to order from abroad has slightly declined. Finally the balance of opinion related to shipments abroad has receded slightly, while remaining above average.
The balances related to workforce have improved
The balance of opinion on past employment carries on its recovery and now stands well beyond its average. The one related to expected workforce has increased a little and remains much higher than its average.
The balances of opinion on selling prices have risen sligthly
In January, the balances of opinion regarding selling prices, past as well as expected, have slightly risen after a vigorous rebound in November 2019. But they still lie well below their long-term average.
In January, hardly fewer wholesalers than in November have considered their cash flow situation to be favourable. The related balance stays above its average.
tableauWholesale trade sectors
Ave* | July-19 | Sep.-19 | Nov.-19 | Jan.-20 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite indicators | 100 | 106 | 106 | 106 | 104 |
General business outlook | -22 | -7 | -3 | -4 | -12 |
Sales | -14 | -9 | -9 | -8 | -13 |
export sales | -15 | -8 | -9 | -7 | -12 |
Received merchandise | -9 | -4 | -6 | -6 | -9 |
received from abroad | -10 | -8 | -7 | -6 | -6 |
Ordering intentions | -15 | -4 | -6 | -9 | -9 |
ordering from abroad | -15 | -12 | -8 | -8 | -10 |
Shipments abroad | -15 | -9 | -10 | -7 | -8 |
Stocks | 8 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 8 |
Past workforce | -1 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 4 |
Expected workforce | -2 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
Cash position | -9 | -5 | -5 | -4 | -5 |
Past selling prices | 7 | -3 | -6 | 1 | 3 |
Expected selling prices | 14 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
- * : average since september 1979
- Source : INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
The turning-point indicator remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic situation.
tableauTurning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator | |
---|---|
2010-B1 | 0.88 |
2010-B2 | -0.2 |
2010-B3 | 0.9 |
2010-B4 | 0.95 |
2010-B5 | 0.82 |
2010-B6 | 0.59 |
2011-B1 | 0.82 |
2011-B2 | 0.97 |
2011-B3 | 0.56 |
2011-B4 | 0.01 |
2011-B5 | -0.92 |
2011-B6 | -0.92 |
2012-B1 | -0.93 |
2012-B2 | 0.83 |
2012-B3 | -0.49 |
2012-B4 | -0.36 |
2012-B5 | -0.94 |
2012-B6 | -0.39 |
2013-B1 | -0.52 |
2013-B2 | -0.26 |
2013-B3 | -0.35 |
2013-B4 | -0.12 |
2013-B5 | 0.88 |
2013-B6 | 0.09 |
2014-B1 | 0.22 |
2014-B2 | 0.39 |
2014-B3 | 0.56 |
2014-B4 | -0.32 |
2014-B5 | -0.95 |
2014-B6 | 0.61 |
2015-B1 | 0.8 |
2015-B2 | 0.85 |
2015-B3 | 0.8 |
2015-B4 | 0.92 |
2015-B5 | 0.11 |
2015-B6 | 0.41 |
2016-B1 | -0.86 |
2016-B2 | 0.07 |
2016-B3 | 0.4 |
2016-B4 | 0.47 |
2016-B5 | 0.35 |
2016-B6 | 0.34 |
2017-B1 | 0.92 |
2017-B2 | 0.91 |
2017-B3 | 0.95 |
2017-B4 | 0.95 |
2017-B5 | 0.82 |
2017-B6 | 0.85 |
2018-B1 | 0.48 |
2018-B2 | 0.58 |
2018-B3 | -0.84 |
2018-B4 | 0.06 |
2018-B5 | 0.01 |
2018-B6 | 0.77 |
2019-B1 | -0.28 |
2019-B2 | 0.89 |
2019-B3 | 0.95 |
2019-B4 | 0.71 |
2019-B5 | 0.6 |
2019-B6 | 0.83 |
2020-B1 | 0.88 |
graphiqueTurning-point indicator
tableauWholesale trade sectors
Ave* | July-19 | Sep.-19 | Nov.-19 | Jan.-20 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
Sales | -13 | -7 | -14 | -21 | -20 |
Export sales | -16 | -7 | -6 | 3 | 8 |
Merchandise received from abroad | -10 | -13 | -10 | -7 | -5 |
Ordering intentions | -12 | -4 | -5 | -9 | -11 |
Current stock | 5 | 11 | 19 | 11 | 13 |
Food products and beverages | |||||
Sales | -14 | -13 | -15 | -11 | -19 |
Export sales | -12 | -4 | -5 | -13 | -15 |
Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -13 | -17 | -12 | 3 |
Ordering intentions | -11 | -4 | -4 | -9 | -7 |
Current stocks | 5 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 2 |
Household goods | |||||
Sales | -10 | -11 | -9 | -2 | -4 |
Export sales | -11 | -6 | -7 | -5 | -9 |
Merchandise received from abroad | -5 | -8 | 4 | 1 | -5 |
Ordering intentions | -13 | 1 | -5 | -3 | -7 |
Current stock | 12 | 8 | 15 | 12 | 11 |
Information and communication equipment | |||||
Sales | -8 | -21 | 0 | -5 | -20 |
Export sales | -13 | -7 | -9 | -6 | -8 |
Merchandise received from abroad | -7 | -4 | -2 | 2 | -3 |
Ordering intentions | -10 | -20 | -2 | -13 | -5 |
Current stock | 9 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
Other industrial capital goods | |||||
Sales | -16 | -4 | 1 | -5 | -13 |
Export sales | -21 | -8 | -11 | -9 | -18 |
Merchandise received from abroad | -11 | -2 | -6 | -6 | -9 |
Ordering intentions | -21 | -2 | -6 | -11 | -9 |
Current stock | 12 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 22 |
Other specialised wholesale trade | |||||
Sales | -17 | -1 | -9 | -5 | -12 |
Export sales | -19 | -14 | -14 | -9 | -22 |
Merchandise received from abroad | -12 | -8 | -8 | -9 | -16 |
Ordering intentions | -18 | -7 | -12 | -13 | -13 |
Current stock | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
- * : average since september 1979
- Source : INSEE – business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Raw agricultural products and live animals
In the agricultural wholesale sector, the business managers’ balance of opinion on total past sales has hardly recovered and stays below its long term average. The balances of opinion related to sales abroad and to merchandise received from abroad have risen again, up to levels above their mean. However, the balance related to ordering intentions has fallen again.
Food products and beverages
In the food wholesale sector, the balances of opinion on past sales, taken in total or solely abroad, have receded sharply and fallen below their long-term average. Nevertheless, the balance regarding merchandise received from abroad has improved strongly while the balance on ordering intentions has picked up more moderately.
Household goods
In the wholesale of household goods, the balances of opinion on past sales, be it abroad or not, have fallen back but remain above their average level. The balances on merchandise received from abroad and on ordering intentions have decreased, hinting that the wholesalers’ volume of supply would decline over the next few months.
Capital goods in information and communication
In this sector, for which balances of opinion fluctuate severely, the balance related to total past sales has plummeted under its long-term average. The balances on sales abroad and on merchandise received from abroad have declined as well. However, the wholesalers’ balance of opinion on their ordering intentions has recovered noticeably.
Other industrial capital goods
In the wholesale trade for other industrial capital goods, the balances on past sales, in total and abroad, have diminished strongly. Compared to this, the balance of opinion on merchandise received from abroad has receded more slightly. Thus, the balance related to stocks has leaped and reflects a tendency to storage. The balance on ordering intentions has edged up and remains above its average.
Other specialised wholesale trade
The opinion of wholesalers of other specialised goods has deteriorated clearly on nearly every topic: the volume of past sales and of sales abroad, merchandise received from abroad, and the level of stocks. The balances regarding sales abroad, merchandise received from abroad and stocks have dropped below their average. Only the balance related to ordering intentions is steady, above its average.
tableauPast activity (sales) in capital goods
Capital goods in information and communication | Other industrial capital goods | |
---|---|---|
2008-B1 | -23.7 | 5.2 |
2008-B2 | -5.5 | 4.4 |
2008-B3 | 2.8 | -3.5 |
2008-B4 | -7.0 | -14.3 |
2008-B5 | -10.8 | -20.7 |
2008-B6 | -15.4 | -35.4 |
2009-B1 | -32.7 | -57.0 |
2009-B2 | -60.4 | -74.2 |
2009-B3 | -63.9 | -67.8 |
2009-B4 | -63.0 | -70.0 |
2009-B5 | -56.5 | -70.0 |
2009-B6 | -20.5 | -68.2 |
2010-B1 | -13.5 | -56.7 |
2010-B2 | -36.0 | -57.5 |
2010-B3 | -0.5 | -40.3 |
2010-B4 | 29.5 | -32.9 |
2010-B5 | 19.8 | -16.0 |
2010-B6 | 19.9 | -18.1 |
2011-B1 | 14.6 | -17.4 |
2011-B2 | -11.2 | 1.8 |
2011-B3 | 0.4 | 6.7 |
2011-B4 | -1.6 | -0.3 |
2011-B5 | -6.6 | 0.1 |
2011-B6 | -27.6 | -12.8 |
2012-B1 | -12.2 | -12.2 |
2012-B2 | -15.9 | -15.4 |
2012-B3 | -24.1 | -28.8 |
2012-B4 | -22.6 | -30.0 |
2012-B5 | -16.2 | -28.0 |
2012-B6 | -29.9 | -36.8 |
2013-B1 | -37.1 | -41.7 |
2013-B2 | -12.4 | -33.6 |
2013-B3 | -18.5 | -37.8 |
2013-B4 | -39.0 | -38.3 |
2013-B5 | -16.7 | -30.6 |
2013-B6 | -11.6 | -25.7 |
2014-B1 | -28.3 | -28.0 |
2014-B2 | -14.4 | -19.9 |
2014-B3 | -15.1 | -27.2 |
2014-B4 | -9.7 | -38.8 |
2014-B5 | -24.0 | -40.9 |
2014-B6 | -9.3 | -38.5 |
2015-B1 | -12.5 | -35.9 |
2015-B2 | -7.5 | -32.9 |
2015-B3 | 3.3 | -28.6 |
2015-B4 | -3.8 | -22.4 |
2015-B5 | -3.3 | -24.6 |
2015-B6 | -7.9 | -27.8 |
2016-B1 | 0.5 | -18.4 |
2016-B2 | 0.1 | -21.4 |
2016-B3 | -11.1 | -17.4 |
2016-B4 | -0.8 | -17.0 |
2016-B5 | -3.6 | -24.5 |
2016-B6 | -11.6 | -19.2 |
2017-B1 | -8.3 | -16.2 |
2017-B2 | -6.0 | -12.2 |
2017-B3 | -7.3 | -6.8 |
2017-B4 | -0.6 | 0.5 |
2017-B5 | -1.3 | -1.7 |
2017-B6 | -7.0 | 8.9 |
2018-B1 | -13.0 | 8.0 |
2018-B2 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
2018-B3 | 0.9 | -5.0 |
2018-B4 | 7.5 | -7.8 |
2018-B5 | 13.4 | -6.7 |
2018-B6 | 5.8 | -9.4 |
2019-B1 | -21.4 | -16.3 |
2019-B2 | 20.0 | -3.2 |
2019-B3 | 10.4 | -1.0 |
2019-B4 | -20.8 | -4.2 |
2019-B5 | 0.4 | 1.1 |
2019-B6 | -5.2 | -4.8 |
2020-B1 | -20.3 | -13.0 |
graphiquePast activity (sales) in capital goods
For further information
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.
Next issue: 26 March 2020 at 8:45 am.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.
Next issue: 26 March 2020 at 8:45 am.
Time series : Wholesale trade