22 January 2020

2020- n° 11

In January 2020, the business climate in the manufacturing industry has returned to its long-term average Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - January 2020

According to the business managers surveyed in January 2020, the business climate in industry has gained two points, up to 100, its long term average.

In January 2020, the industrialists’ balance of opinion on their overall and foreign order books has recovered slightly, after their deterioration in December. The balance of opinion on the overall order books has exceeded its long term average, whereas the one on foreign order books has stayed slightly below.

The balance of opinion on past production is practically stable, largely below its long-term average. The balance of opinion on personal production prospects has incresaed again a little and has moved just above its average. The one on general production prospects is stable above its long-term average.

The balance of opinion regarding finished-good inventories has declined again, much more markedly than in December. It has approached its lower point since September 2018, well below its long-term average.

Considering employment, the balance of opinion on past variation has increased very slightly and the one on expected variation is stable. Both indicators stand above their long-term average.

The turning point indicator has moved to the area indicating a favourable economic outlook.

The business climate in the agrofood industry has slightly worsened (–1 point), after the rebound in the previous month. At 106, it stays well above its long-term average. This slight deterioration is mainly explained by the decline in the balance of opinion on overall order books and on personal production prospects.

In the manufacture of equipment goods, the business climate has gained two points in December, principaly because of the increase of the balance on foreign order books. Up to 99, the composite indicator has moved closer to its long-term average.

In Januray, the composite indicator has gained two points in the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, after three consecutive months of decline. At 107, it stands well above its long-term average. The business indcator has improved slightly in the manufacture of electrical equipments (97) and more markedly in the manufacture of machinery and equipments (96). In both subsectors, the composite indicator stays below its long-term average.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has gained one point in January. At 100, it has reached its long-term average.

In the automotive industry, the business climate has gained three points (93). This rebound is explained principaly by the decrease in the balance on finished-good inventories, and the increases of the balances on past production and on personal production prospects. The composite indicator stays nevertheless significantly below its long-term average.

In the manufacture of other transport equipments, the business climate has worsened slightly, due to the balance of opinion on foreign order books. At 105, it stands nevertheless sharply above its long-term average.

In the overall « other manufacturing » industry, the business climate has recovered slightly. At 98, the indicator stays below its long-term average.

The business climate has improved in almost all activities. The increase first concerns the « other manufacturing industries » where the indicator has gained five points, to 106. This rebound is principaly explained by the increase in the balance on overall order books. The climates in the clothing-textiles industry and the rubber and plastic industry have increased both by two points to respectively 108 and 96. The business climate is virtually stable in chemicals and chemical products (97) and stays unchanged well below its long-term average in the manufacture of basics metals and metal products (93). Finally, the business climate has deteriorated in the wood-paper-printing industry where it has reached its lower point since July 2019.

The business climate of December 2019 has been revised downward by four points. This revision, more important than usual, concerns particularly to the manufacture of transport equipment. It is explained by the late responses of some companies and by the entries and exits from the sample because of occasional non-response of some other companies.