15 October 2019

2019- n° 266

In September 2019, consumer prices fell back by 0.3% over one month and rose by 0.9% year on year Consumer price index - final results - September 2019

In September 2019, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell back, to −0.3% over a month, after a 0.5% rebound in August. This downturn resulted from that, seasonal, in services prices (−1.3% after +0.4% in August), and in a lesser extent that in food prices (−0.5% after +0.5%). Contrariwise, manufactured product prices gathered pace (+1,5% after +0.9% in August) and those of energy increased by 0.3% after a stability in the previous month. Finally, tobacco prices were stable over a month.

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices were unchanged over a month, after +0.1% in August and in July.

Year on year, consumer prices slightly recovered, as in the previous month: +0.9% in September, after +1.0% in August and +1.1% in July. This slight fall in inflation came from a slowdown in the prices of food and energy, partly offset by an acceleration in services prices and a lesser drop in manufactured products prices.

Year on year, core inflation increased in September: +0.9% after +0.7% in the previous month. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) fell back over a month, to −0.4% after +0.5% in August; year on year, it rose by 1.1%, after +1.3% in the previous month.

In September 2019, food prices sharply slowed down: +2.1% year on year, after +3.1% in August. Those of fresh products strongly decelerated (+2.0% year on year after +8.5% in August), due to a marked slowdown in the prices of fresh vegetables (+2.6% after +16.8%) and a downturn in those of fresh fruits (−1.5% after +1.0%). Excluding fresh products, food prices rose at a pace near to that in the previous months (+2.1% year on year after +2.2%).

Energy inflation dropped in September (+0.2% year on year after +0.8%). The prices of petroleum products contracted more sharply than in the previous month (−2.6% year on year after −1.9%): over a month, they rebounded (+0.8% after −0.7%), but the rise was less marked than that in September 2018 (+1.5%). The accentuated drop in gas prices (−3.4% year on year after −2.2%) also contributed to lower energy inflation.

Year on year, services prices gathered pace, to +1.2%, after +1.1% in August and in July. The prices of communication services rose year on year for the first time since July 2018: +0.9% in September year on year after −0.5%. Moreover, the prices of “other services” accelerated (+1.7% after +1.4%). Contrariwise, those of transport services slowed down, to +0.8% year on year after an acceleration in August (+1,3%), in the wake of those of airfares (+0.8% after +2.8%). Health services prices dropped by 0.3% year on year, after −0.1% in August. Finally, the prices in housing-related services rose by 0.8% year on year, as in August.

Year on year, manufactured product prices dropped less sharply in September than in August: −0.7%, after −0.9%. This lesser fall came from that in clothing and footwear prices (−1.2% after −1.4%). The prices in “other manufactured products” prices fell by 0.1% year on year after −0.4% in August, due to a rebound in the motor cars prices (+0.5% after −0.5%) and an attenuated drop in household appliances prices (−1.2% after −2.0%). Finally, the decrease in health product prices was accentuated barely (−3.0% after −2.9%).

Compared with the provisional estimates published on September 27, 2019, the month-on-month and year-on-year changes in the CPI and in the HICP have been confirmed.