Informations rapides
23 May 2019
2019
In May 2019, the business climate has picked up in the manufacturing industry Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - May 2019

According to the business managers surveyed in May 2019, the business climate in industry has strongly improved. The composite indicator has rebounded: it has increased by three points and has reached its highest level since November 2018. At 104, it stands above its long-term average (100).

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Paru le :Paru le23/05/2019
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According to the business managers surveyed in May 2019, the business climate in industry has strongly improved. The composite indicator has rebounded: it has increased by three points and has reached its highest level since November 2018. At 104, it stands above its long-term average (100).

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
1998-01 112.6
1998-02 113.1
1998-03 117.0
1998-04 115.2
1998-05 114.8
1998-06 115.1
1998-07 113.8
1998-08 112.7
1998-09 111.9
1998-10 106.7
1998-11 104.0
1998-12 102.1
1999-01 101.4
1999-02 101.8
1999-03 96.7
1999-04 98.3
1999-05 100.5
1999-06 99.6
1999-07 105.8
1999-08 109.0
1999-09 111.8
1999-10 113.3
1999-11 116.5
1999-12 114.1
2000-01 115.7
2000-02 117.5
2000-03 119.7
2000-04 119.7
2000-05 121.1
2000-06 124.0
2000-07 121.1
2000-08 121.3
2000-09 121.0
2000-10 120.0
2000-11 118.1
2000-12 114.1
2001-01 113.0
2001-02 112.8
2001-03 111.5
2001-04 107.2
2001-05 105.4
2001-06 103.8
2001-07 101.4
2001-08 98.5
2001-09 95.2
2001-10 94.8
2001-11 90.7
2001-12 92.1
2002-01 93.2
2002-02 94.8
2002-03 96.8
2002-04 98.3
2002-05 102.0
2002-06 100.2
2002-07 97.3
2002-08 98.0
2002-09 98.8
2002-10 95.6
2002-11 96.3
2002-12 100.8
2003-01 97.6
2003-02 97.2
2003-03 92.7
2003-04 91.7
2003-05 91.4
2003-06 89.7
2003-07 92.5
2003-08 92.3
2003-09 92.6
2003-10 95.5
2003-11 99.9
2003-12 100.5
2004-01 100.2
2004-02 100.4
2004-03 103.6
2004-04 103.3
2004-05 104.7
2004-06 105.4
2004-07 105.2
2004-08 105.3
2004-09 105.3
2004-10 105.1
2004-11 103.1
2004-12 103.3
2005-01 103.3
2005-02 103.2
2005-03 99.8
2005-04 96.5
2005-05 97.1
2005-06 99.0
2005-07 100.1
2005-08 99.6
2005-09 99.0
2005-10 101.0
2005-11 100.9
2005-12 104.0
2006-01 102.9
2006-02 106.5
2006-03 106.3
2006-04 107.9
2006-05 108.8
2006-06 108.6
2006-07 108.7
2006-08 108.3
2006-09 107.9
2006-10 107.2
2006-11 109.6
2006-12 109.2
2007-01 108.2
2007-02 111.7
2007-03 111.2
2007-04 111.9
2007-05 109.9
2007-06 111.1
2007-07 111.4
2007-08 110.8
2007-09 110.4
2007-10 109.9
2007-11 112.2
2007-12 112.4
2008-01 110.5
2008-02 110.3
2008-03 109.9
2008-04 107.4
2008-05 104.1
2008-06 103.4
2008-07 98.7
2008-08 97.8
2008-09 91.3
2008-10 86.8
2008-11 79.5
2008-12 73.1
2009-01 72.0
2009-02 68.0
2009-03 66.2
2009-04 70.1
2009-05 72.0
2009-06 74.9
2009-07 76.3
2009-08 81.0
2009-09 84.1
2009-10 85.3
2009-11 87.9
2009-12 87.7
2010-01 90.4
2010-02 88.9
2010-03 91.3
2010-04 95.5
2010-05 96.9
2010-06 96.0
2010-07 97.3
2010-08 100.7
2010-09 103.1
2010-10 104.3
2010-11 101.9
2010-12 104.3
2011-01 108.9
2011-02 107.2
2011-03 110.3
2011-04 110.2
2011-05 107.3
2011-06 110.0
2011-07 104.8
2011-08 101.2
2011-09 99.1
2011-10 97.3
2011-11 97.4
2011-12 94.5
2012-01 94.9
2012-02 94.8
2012-03 96.3
2012-04 95.5
2012-05 94.7
2012-06 92.9
2012-07 90.9
2012-08 92.8
2012-09 92.4
2012-10 86.9
2012-11 91.6
2012-12 90.7
2013-01 89.6
2013-02 90.4
2013-03 90.4
2013-04 87.6
2013-05 92.0
2013-06 92.6
2013-07 94.7
2013-08 98.6
2013-09 95.8
2013-10 97.9
2013-11 98.2
2013-12 99.2
2014-01 99.5
2014-02 98.3
2014-03 100.8
2014-04 100.3
2014-05 98.4
2014-06 96.6
2014-07 96.3
2014-08 96.6
2014-09 96.8
2014-10 97.4
2014-11 98.9
2014-12 98.6
2015-01 98.7
2015-02 98.4
2015-03 98.7
2015-04 101.4
2015-05 101.9
2015-06 100.2
2015-07 101.6
2015-08 103.7
2015-09 104.8
2015-10 103.1
2015-11 102.4
2015-12 102.2
2016-01 102.4
2016-02 102.7
2016-03 102.3
2016-04 104.5
2016-05 104.6
2016-06 101.3
2016-07 101.6
2016-08 101.8
2016-09 103.4
2016-10 101.9
2016-11 102.2
2016-12 105.3
2017-01 105.7
2017-02 106.4
2017-03 105.5
2017-04 108.4
2017-05 109.2
2017-06 108.8
2017-07 108.2
2017-08 110.6
2017-09 110.8
2017-10 110.8
2017-11 111.8
2017-12 111.2
2018-01 113.3
2018-02 112.1
2018-03 110.4
2018-04 110.1
2018-05 110.2
2018-06 109.6
2018-07 108.8
2018-08 109.7
2018-09 107.1
2018-10 104.0
2018-11 105.5
2018-12 102.7
2019-01 102.8
2019-02 102.8
2019-03 103.4
2019-04 100.8
2019-05 104.1

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Ave.* Feb. 19 Mar. 19 Apr. 19 May 19
Manufacturing industry
Composite indicator 100 103 103 101 104
Past activity 5 9 6 0 3
Finished-goods inventory 13 10 14 16 10
Overall order books -18 -13 -11 -13 -8
Export order books -14 -9 -11 -10 -9
Past workforce size -10 1 3 7 4
Expected workforce size -11 0 0 2 2
Personal production expectations 5 7 13 6 13
General production expectations -8 -4 -1 -2 4
  • * Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

A strong renewed optimism about production prospects

In May 2019, industrialists are much more optimistic on their personal production expectations than in the previous month: the corresponding balance of opinion has returned to its March level after dropping in April. It stands well above its long-term average. The balance of opinion on past activity has also picked up but remains below its long-term average.

Industrialists are also more optimistic about the general production prospects for the sector as a whole. The corresponding balance has risen and largely exceeds its long-term average.

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.37
2010-02 -0.28
2010-03 0.21
2010-04 0.46
2010-05 0.41
2010-06 0.25
2010-07 0.3
2010-08 0.68
2010-09 0.89
2010-10 0.94
2010-11 -0.48
2010-12 0.67
2011-01 0.95
2011-02 0.72
2011-03 0.87
2011-04 0.75
2011-05 0.55
2011-06 0.69
2011-07 -0.62
2011-08 -0.97
2011-09 -0.96
2011-10 -0.84
2011-11 -0.6
2011-12 -0.81
2012-01 -0.89
2012-02 -0.64
2012-03 0.05
2012-04 -0.15
2012-05 -0.12
2012-06 -0.89
2012-07 -0.92
2012-08 0.32
2012-09 0.25
2012-10 -0.81
2012-11 0.47
2012-12 0.17
2013-01 0.07
2013-02 0.08
2013-03 -0.03
2013-04 -0.88
2013-05 0.0
2013-06 0.6
2013-07 0.86
2013-08 0.94
2013-09 0.85
2013-10 0.84
2013-11 0.29
2013-12 0.87
2014-01 0.94
2014-02 0.72
2014-03 0.94
2014-04 0.78
2014-05 0.6
2014-06 0.44
2014-07 0.52
2014-08 0.49
2014-09 0.63
2014-10 0.48
2014-11 0.78
2014-12 0.67
2015-01 0.64
2015-02 0.57
2015-03 0.81
2015-04 0.79
2015-05 0.64
2015-06 0.62
2015-07 0.72
2015-08 0.88
2015-09 0.8
2015-10 0.18
2015-11 0.09
2015-12 0.27
2016-01 0.7
2016-02 0.65
2016-03 0.62
2016-04 0.65
2016-05 0.61
2016-06 0.18
2016-07 0.31
2016-08 0.31
2016-09 0.51
2016-10 0.51
2016-11 0.55
2016-12 0.6
2017-01 0.69
2017-02 0.77
2017-03 -0.58
2017-04 0.3
2017-05 0.5
2017-06 0.45
2017-07 0.53
2017-08 0.64
2017-09 0.86
2017-10 0.82
2017-11 0.72
2017-12 0.76
2018-01 0.95
2018-02 0.75
2018-03 0.6
2018-04 0.62
2018-05 0.5
2018-06 0.4
2018-07 0.28
2018-08 0.43
2018-09 0.51
2018-10 0.38
2018-11 0.57
2018-12 -0.04
2019-01 0.26
2019-02 0.38
2019-03 0.43
2019-04 -0.15
2019-05 0.75

Turning-point indicator

  • How to read it: close to 1, the indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (-1 is unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between −0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

In the agrofood industry, the business climate stands at a very high level

The business climate indicator in the manufacture of food products and beverages has improved and has reached its highest level since January 2018. At 110, it stands well above its long-term average (100). This increase mainly comes from the rebound in the balance on export order books, to its highest level for ten years.

The business climate has sharply improved in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods

In the overall manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate has improved by four points, to 105, and has moved away from its long-term average. This improvement is mainly due to the increase in the balance on overall order books

The business climate has continued to improve in the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, and strongly has brightened significantly in the electrical equipment branch. However, it has further deteriorated in machinery and equipment, falling just below its long-term average.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has recovered

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate indicator has recovered after losing two points in Arpil. At 103, it is above its long-term average (100).

The climate indicator has sharply rebounded in the automotive industry, moving up close to its long term average. This rise comes from an increase in the balances on personal production expectations and on export order books, which have returned above their long term average.

In the manufacture of other transport equipment, the business climate has slightly deteriorated again, while remaining above its average.

The business climate is slightly more favourable in « other manufacturing »

The business climate in the overall « other manufacturing » industry is slightly more favourable than in April: the corresponding balance has increased by one point. At 102, it stands above its long-term average.

By subsector, the business climate indicator has increased in clothing-textiles, chemicals, basic metals and “other manufacturing industries”. Conversely, it has declined in rubber and plastic products. It is stable in wood-paper. In the latter and in basic metals, the business climate remains below their average.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2011-01 109.3 104.9 105.0 105.1
2011-02 107.6 103.0 99.4 108.2
2011-03 106.8 107.3 106.0 109.6
2011-04 109.0 105.4 105.6 109.7
2011-05 109.7 104.0 105.0 107.5
2011-06 108.7 105.0 109.2 108.6
2011-07 111.0 103.1 103.7 104.7
2011-08 103.7 101.1 101.6 100.2
2011-09 101.9 100.0 98.6 97.9
2011-10 104.4 98.6 100.0 96.2
2011-11 102.2 96.3 102.0 94.0
2011-12 98.1 96.6 99.9 94.3
2012-01 99.9 96.5 94.7 94.0
2012-02 100.4 96.5 93.5 95.8
2012-03 102.2 97.0 102.7 97.0
2012-04 99.2 96.5 93.8 97.6
2012-05 93.7 95.1 94.7 95.7
2012-06 94.9 91.4 95.4 93.4
2012-07 94.9 91.2 94.9 92.2
2012-08 93.9 90.7 95.0 93.3
2012-09 96.8 91.3 96.9 93.4
2012-10 91.3 86.3 95.4 89.3
2012-11 98.7 87.5 92.6 92.2
2012-12 99.0 88.0 92.1 91.6
2013-01 97.8 88.2 92.2 91.0
2013-02 98.0 89.1 94.1 90.1
2013-03 94.0 89.3 93.6 91.0
2013-04 92.0 90.2 92.7 89.1
2013-05 91.8 90.0 94.7 91.7
2013-06 92.7 89.5 94.6 93.1
2013-07 92.4 90.0 98.6 94.9
2013-08 95.7 92.1 101.3 97.0
2013-09 95.1 90.4 97.4 97.0
2013-10 95.6 90.8 103.4 97.7
2013-11 98.4 93.0 101.8 98.5
2013-12 98.8 92.2 99.8 99.0
2014-01 99.7 91.7 102.3 98.4
2014-02 99.2 94.3 97.8 98.2
2014-03 99.8 93.2 100.5 102.1
2014-04 95.9 93.1 102.6 99.9
2014-05 98.2 94.2 98.1 99.2
2014-06 96.1 92.2 97.9 98.3
2014-07 97.2 89.7 99.1 98.8
2014-08 95.6 93.8 97.7 100.3
2014-09 94.5 92.6 100.6 97.0
2014-10 95.7 93.0 97.0 98.3
2014-11 96.3 92.6 99.9 99.6
2014-12 99.2 92.6 99.5 99.9
2015-01 103.4 93.9 101.5 99.4
2015-02 99.4 95.6 100.8 100.0
2015-03 100.6 94.6 105.0 99.8
2015-04 104.5 97.2 106.7 100.4
2015-05 102.5 97.7 104.8 101.3
2015-06 105.4 97.6 105.0 100.6
2015-07 109.0 98.9 104.7 102.7
2015-08 103.7 97.9 107.7 101.4
2015-09 105.4 96.7 108.9 102.4
2015-10 104.1 98.7 107.5 99.7
2015-11 102.4 100.2 107.6 99.4
2015-12 99.8 98.5 107.5 101.3
2016-01 101.8 101.0 107.8 99.0
2016-02 100.0 101.2 108.7 99.6
2016-03 101.5 99.6 105.7 100.8
2016-04 105.6 100.6 108.8 101.0
2016-05 104.1 98.1 105.9 103.8
2016-06 103.5 97.6 105.8 101.1
2016-07 104.6 98.2 105.1 101.6
2016-08 99.9 98.7 103.9 101.3
2016-09 108.4 99.0 105.1 100.4
2016-10 106.2 98.0 105.4 100.9
2016-11 107.8 100.2 102.3 101.2
2016-12 108.1 103.8 104.2 104.2
2017-01 104.3 102.7 106.4 104.9
2017-02 105.1 104.3 106.0 105.9
2017-03 104.3 105.2 105.3 104.7
2017-04 103.7 107.4 105.6 107.6
2017-05 106.7 109.5 105.4 107.3
2017-06 112.0 108.6 105.1 108.1
2017-07 108.7 109.4 108.3 106.7
2017-08 109.6 107.1 108.6 108.3
2017-09 106.4 107.7 109.2 108.4
2017-10 110.5 110.0 108.2 109.9
2017-11 112.6 110.0 109.1 111.1
2017-12 110.8 111.2 109.9 109.9
2018-01 111.3 112.7 111.8 110.4
2018-02 109.6 111.1 111.8 109.7
2018-03 109.1 110.3 111.3 109.2
2018-04 109.5 110.1 112.1 107.6
2018-05 108.9 111.8 108.0 107.9
2018-06 110.2 108.2 109.9 105.3
2018-07 107.8 108.8 106.1 106.6
2018-08 109.2 108.3 106.8 105.8
2018-09 106.4 107.7 105.0 104.8
2018-10 101.8 107.4 103.4 102.3
2018-11 108.9 102.3 104.0 102.8
2018-12 107.4 102.2 101.9 101.5
2019-01 107.6 103.4 102.1 101.4
2019-02 108.0 105.0 100.2 100.9
2019-03 107.0 100.9 102.6 101.4
2019-04 107.1 101.3 100.5 100.8
2019-05 110.4 104.9 103.4 102.3

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] Weights** (%) Mar. 19 Apr. 19 May 19
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 21 107 107 110
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 101 101 105
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 3 100 104 109
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 98 100 111
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 103 101 99
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 17 103 101 103
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 8 96 93 99
[CL2] Other transport equipment 9 106 105 104
(C5) Other manufacturing 46 101 101 102
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 111 112 116
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 5 97 98 98
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 9 97 97 100
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 105 104 102
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 100 97 99
[CM] Other manufacturing industries 9 103 105 106
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

For further information

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.

Next issue:25 juin 2019 at 8h45

Documentation

Methodology (pdf,133 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.

Next issue:25 juin 2019 at 8h45

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