24 October 2018
2018- n° 277In October 2018, the French business climate is slightly less favourable and the employment
climate remains stable Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - October 2018
In October 2018, the business climate has deteriorated a little, while remaining at a high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost one point and stands at 104, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to September, the business climate has lost four points in retail trade and three points in manufacturing industry. It is stable in building construction and in services. The business climate remains above its long-term mean in all the sectors.
The business climate indicator has lost one point
In October 2018, the business climate has deteriorated a little, while remaining at a high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost one point and stands at 104, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to September, the business climate has lost four points in retail trade and three points in manufacturing industry. It is stable in building construction and in services. The business climate remains above its long-term mean in all the sectors.
The employment climate is stable at a high level
In October 2018, the employment climate is stable. The associated composite indicator stands at 107 for the third month in a row, well above its long-term average. Mostly, the rise in the balances of opinion on employment in the services sector has offset decreases in the other considered sectors.
Revisions
Compared to their first estimate in September 2018, the composite indicator for the whole economy and the composite indicator for the employment climate have been lowered by one point. These revisions result from the integration of late answers from businesses. The other climate indicators are unchanged.
graphiqueGraph 1 – French business climate composite indicator
graphiqueGraph 2 – French employment climate composite indicator
tableauTable 1 – Business and employment climates
| June 18 | July 18 | Aug. 18 | Sept. 18 | Oct. 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climates | |||||
| France | 107 | 106 | 105 | 105 | 104 |
| Manufacturing | 110 | 109 | 110 | 107 | 104 |
| Building | 108 | 109 | 108 | 108 | 108 |
| Services | 105 | 105 | 104 | 105 | 105 |
| Retail trade | 112 | 114 | 111 | 109 | 105 |
| Wholesale trade | - | 102 | - | 104 | - |
| Employment climate | |||||
| Employment | 110 | 108 | 107 | 107 | 107 |
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
The turning point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook
The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.
tableauTable 2 – Turning point indicators
| June 18 | July 18 | Aug. 18 | Sept. 18 | Oct. 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Manufacturing | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Building | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Services | 0.6 | 0.4 | –0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Wholesale trade | - | 0.1 | - | –0.2 | - |
- Source: INSEE. Business tendency surveys
graphiqueGraph 3 – Turning point indicator
- Close to +1 (resp. -1). the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between −0.3 and +0.3.
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (pdf,130 Ko)
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