22 March 2018
2018- n° 76In March 2018, the French business climate, virtually stable, remains favourable;
the employment climate is stable at a very high level Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - March 2018
In March 2018, the business climate is virtually stable, at a high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost one point for the third consecutive month. At 109, it is still well above its long-term mean (100). The business climate has lost two points in retail trade, one point in manufacturing industry, is stable in services, has risen by one point in building construction and two points in wholesale trade. It remains well above its long-term mean in all the sectors.
The French business climate is virtually stable in March
In March 2018, the business climate is virtually stable, at a high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost one point for the third consecutive month. At 109, it is still well above its long-term mean (100). The business climate has lost two points in retail trade, one point in manufacturing industry, is stable in services, has risen by one point in building construction and two points in wholesale trade. It remains well above its long-term mean in all the sectors.
The employment climate remains stable at a high level
In March 2018, the employment climate is stable. The associated composite indicator stands at 111, the same level as last month. The decrease in the balance of opinion on past workforce size in the service sector excluding temporary employment and in temporary work agencies has been offset by the rise in the balances on expected workforce size in the same sub sectors.
Revisions
Compared to their first estimate in February 2018, the composite indicators for the whole economy, services and retail trade have been raised by one point whereas the one concerning building construction has been lowered by one point. Compared to its first estimate in January 2018, the composite indicator for the wholesale trade has been raised by one point. The composite indicator for the employment climate in February 2018 has been raised by two points. Those revisions result from the integration of late answers from businesses.
graphiqueGraph 1 – French business climate composite indicator
graphiqueGraph 2 – French employment climate composite indicator
tableauTable 1 – Business and employment climates
| Nov. 17 | Dec. 17 | Jan. 18 | Feb. 18 | March 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climates | |||||
| France | 111 | 112 | 111 | 110 | 109 |
| Manufacturing | 113 | 112 | 114 | 112 | 111 |
| Building | 107 | 109 | 108 | 106 | 107 |
| Services | 108 | 110 | 109 | 107 | 107 |
| Retail trade | 116 | 114 | 114 | 115 | 113 |
| Wholesale trade | 111 | - | 107 | - | 109 |
| Employment climate | |||||
| Employment | 108 | 109 | 109 | 111 | 111 |
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
The turning point indicator is in the area indicating an uncertain short-term economic outlook
The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole is in the area indicating an uncertain short-term economic outlook.
tableauTable 2 – Turning point indicators
| Nov. 17 | Dec. 17 | Jan. 18 | Feb. 18 | March 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | –0.4 | –0.1 |
| Manufacturing | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Building | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | –0.6 | –0.1 |
| Services | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Wholesale trade | 0.9 | - | 0.5 | - | 0.6 |
- Source: INSEE. Business tendency surveys
graphiqueGraph 3 – Turning point indicator
- Close to +1 (resp. –1). the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (pdf,130 Ko)
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