26 September 2017
2017- n° 254In September 2017, the French business climate is stable and the employment climate
picks up Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - September 2017
In September 2017, the business climate is stable. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, is still at 109, well above its normal (100), an unprecedented level since April 2011. This month, the climate indicator has risen by four points in retail trade, to its highest level since December 2007. It has increased by one point in services, to an unprecedented level since June 2011. It is stable or virtually in manufacturing industry, wholesale trade and building construction, standing clearly above its long-term mean in each case.
In September 2017, the French business climate is stable at a high level
In September 2017, the business climate is stable. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, is still at 109, well above its normal (100), an unprecedented level since April 2011. This month, the climate indicator has risen by four points in retail trade, to its highest level since December 2007. It has increased by one point in services, to an unprecedented level since June 2011. It is stable or virtually in manufacturing industry, wholesale trade and building construction, standing clearly above its long-term mean in each case.
The employment climate has recovered to its level of July
After two consecutive months of decline, the employment climate has picked up in September 2017, mainly because of the rise in the balance of opinion on expected employment in service sectors excluding temporary employment. The associated composite indicator has gained two points to 107, returning to its July 2017 level, clearly above above its long-term mean.
Revisions
Compared to their first estimates, the business climate indicators have been raised by one point in services in August 2017 and in wholesale trade in July 2017. Those revisions result from the integration of late businesses' answers as well as, concerning wholesale trade, the update of seasonal coefficients and parameters of the composite indicator.
graphiqueGraph1 – French business climate composite indicator
graphiqueGraph3 – French employment climate composite indicator
tableauTable1 – Business and employment climates
| May 17 | June 17 | July 17 | Aug. 17 | Sept. 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climates | |||||
| France | 105 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 109 |
| Manufacturing | 109 | 109 | 108 | 111 | 110 |
| Building | 103 | 104 | 105 | 104 | 104 |
| Services | 102 | 103 | 104 | 107 | 108 |
| Retail trade | 106 | 111 | 111 | 108 | 112 |
| Wholesale trade | 104 | - | 110 | - | 109 |
| Employment climate | |||||
| Employment | 107 | 109 | 107 | 105 | 107 |
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
The turning point indicator remains in the favourable area
The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area showing a favourable short-term economic outlook.
tableauTable2 – Turning point indicators
| May 17 | June 17 | July 17 | Aug. 17 | Sept. 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Manufacturing | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Building | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Services | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Wholesale trade | 0.8 | - | 0.9 | - | 0.9 |
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
graphiqueGraph2 – Turning point indicator
- Close to +1 (resp. −1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between −0.3 and +0.3.
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (pdf,130 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
