Informations Rapides ·
26 April 2024 · n° 105
In April 2024, civil engineering business managers’ opinion on their activity prospects
has degraded compared to January Quaterly survey of public works - April 2024
In April 2024, civil engineering business managers are less optimistic than in January 2024 regarding both their expected activity and the evolution of their workforce size over the next three months. They are, however, more optimistic about the evolution of their recent activity.
- Business manager’s opinion on their expected activity has deteriorated significantly
- The order books are judged less garnished than in January
- Employment prospects have degraded but remain way above their average
- Difficulties due to a lack of manpower are still mentioned very frequently
- For further information
In April 2024, civil engineering business managers are less optimistic than in January 2024 regarding both their expected activity and the evolution of their workforce size over the next three months. They are, however, more optimistic about the evolution of their recent activity.
Business manager’s opinion on their expected activity has deteriorated significantly
In April 2024, business managers are clearly less confident than in January regarding their expected activity over the next three months: the corresponding balance of opinion, very dynamic in January, has dropped back in April, edging his long term average. Among managers distinguishing their client types, the balance of opinion has degraded strongly within the public sector while remaining stable within the private one.
tableauPublic works economic outlook
| Average* | Jul. 23 | Oct. 23 | Jan. 24 | Avr. 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past activity | -5 | -15 | -8 | -1 | 3 |
| Past activity in the public-sector | -11 | -26 | -20 | -11 | -3 |
| Past activity in the private-sector | -8 | -12 | -15 | -5 | 0 |
| Expected activity | -11 | -15 | -14 | 3 | -7 |
| Expected activity in the public-sector | -15 | -26 | -20 | 4 | -12 |
| Expected activity in the private-sector | -14 | -16 | -11 | -8 | -8 |
| Opinion on order books | -23 | -18 | -20 | -12 | -19 |
| Obstacles to production increase because of workforce shortage (in %) | 18 | 43 | 43 | 46 | 45 |
| Expected workforce | -11 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 1 |
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 25 | 17 | 31 | 21 | 16 |
- Note: the balances of opinion by custumer may differ from the balance of the whole, because sometimes the firms don't distinguish public-sector project and private-sector project.
- * Average since January 1981 and since April 2021 for the balances of opinion on the economic uncertainty felt.
- ** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion
- Source: INSEE and FNTP
tableauActivity tendency in civil engineering
| Past activity | Expected activity | |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-Q2 | 3.1 | -7.1 |
| 2024-Q1 | -1.0 | 2.9 |
| 2023-Q4 | -8.0 | -13.8 |
| 2023-Q3 | -15.0 | -15.0 |
| 2023-Q2 | -4.9 | -8.1 |
| 2023-Q1 | 5.0 | -12.1 |
| 2022-Q4 | -4.0 | -6.8 |
| 2022-Q3 | 5.0 | -18.0 |
| 2022-Q2 | 3.0 | -13.4 |
| 2022-Q1 | -4.8 | -1.0 |
| 2021-Q4 | -2.6 | 6.0 |
| 2021-Q3 | 15.6 | 5.4 |
| 2021-Q2 | -9.8 | -8.0 |
| 2021-Q1 | -8.9 | -19.8 |
| 2020-Q4 | 3.6 | -29.8 |
| 2020-Q3 | -89.9 | 17.7 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | 19.3 | -4.5 |
| 2019-Q4 | 29.2 | 10.5 |
| 2019-Q3 | 29.9 | 18.6 |
| 2019-Q2 | 37.3 | 22.8 |
| 2019-Q1 | 32.8 | 25.9 |
| 2018-Q4 | 43.2 | 26.5 |
| 2018-Q3 | 29.6 | 27.8 |
| 2018-Q2 | 28.1 | 32.6 |
| 2018-Q1 | 36.2 | 22.7 |
| 2017-Q4 | 32.5 | 31.4 |
| 2017-Q3 | 36.2 | 28.4 |
| 2017-Q2 | 27.8 | 19.5 |
| 2017-Q1 | 11.2 | 3.4 |
| 2016-Q4 | 9.4 | -5.5 |
| 2016-Q3 | -5.6 | -1.0 |
| 2016-Q2 | -16.8 | -15.4 |
| 2016-Q1 | -18.5 | -15.6 |
| 2015-Q4 | -37.5 | -15.0 |
| 2015-Q3 | -41.0 | -31.7 |
| 2015-Q2 | -50.2 | -43.5 |
| 2015-Q1 | -59.9 | -42.3 |
| 2014-Q4 | -60.3 | -54.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | -45.6 | -48.4 |
| 2014-Q2 | 4.2 | -30.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | -4.2 | -25.6 |
| 2013-Q4 | 3.3 | -15.6 |
| 2013-Q3 | -7.4 | -11.9 |
| 2013-Q2 | -18.4 | -13.5 |
| 2013-Q1 | -11.3 | -13.3 |
| 2012-Q4 | -9.8 | -26.5 |
| 2012-Q3 | -22.6 | -7.6 |
| 2012-Q2 | -12.9 | -6.8 |
| 2012-Q1 | 7.0 | -12.4 |
| 2011-Q4 | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 2011-Q3 | 26.5 | 0.1 |
| 2011-Q2 | 36.8 | 2.3 |
| 2011-Q1 | -32.5 | 0.0 |
| 2010-Q4 | -7.9 | -17.9 |
| 2010-Q3 | -15.9 | -23.9 |
| 2010-Q2 | -33.7 | -20.5 |
| 2010-Q1 | -23.1 | -16.7 |
| 2009-Q4 | -33.3 | -16.1 |
| 2009-Q3 | -50.5 | -34.0 |
| 2009-Q2 | -48.8 | -52.0 |
| 2009-Q1 | -55.3 | -50.6 |
| 2008-Q4 | -30.5 | -47.6 |
| 2008-Q3 | -10.8 | -26.0 |
| 2008-Q2 | 16.3 | -16.0 |
| 2008-Q1 | 20.1 | 2.7 |
| 2007-Q4 | 22.8 | 14.6 |
| 2007-Q3 | 36.2 | 13.9 |
| 2007-Q2 | 39.7 | 21.5 |
| 2007-Q1 | 39.0 | 16.9 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available, the response rate to this survey was greatly affected in April in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueActivity tendency in civil engineering
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available, the response rate to this survey was greatly affected in April in the context of the health crisis.
- Sources: FNTP and INSEE.
However, business managers have once again judged more favourably than in the previous quarter the evolution of their activity over the past three month: the associated balance of opinion has increased for the third quarter in a row and has moved away from its average. For those distinguishing their client types, this improvement concerns both the private and the public sector.
Less business managers than in January have again considered the evolution of their company situation to be unpredictable: the balance of opinion about the felt economic uncertainty has decreased again.
The order books are judged less garnished than in January
In April 2024, business managers’ balance of opinion on the level of their order books has dropped back, moving closer to its long term average.
Employment prospects have degraded but remain way above their average
In April 2024, the balance of opinion about the evolution of the workforce size over the next three months has strongly decreased. It however stands clearly above its long term average.
Difficulties due to a lack of manpower are still mentioned very frequently
In April 2024, 45% of companies have reported to be facing difficulties due to a lack of manpower. This share, which has decreased by one point, remains significantly above its long term average.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 21 march 2024 and 17 April 2024.
Next issue: 26 July 2024 at 12:00 pm.
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,123 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 21 march 2024 and 17 April 2024.
Next issue: 26 July 2024 at 12:00 pm.