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Informations Rapides · 25 April 2024 · n° 100
Informations rapidesIn April 2024, the business climate in services has darkened and has reached back its long-term average Monthly survey of services - April 2024

According to the business managers surveyed in April 2024, the business climate in services has darkened. At 100, the indicator that synthesizes it has lost three points and has reached back its long-term average. This deterioration is mainly the result of the decrease in the balance of opinion on the expected activity.

Informations rapides
No 100
Paru le :Paru le25/04/2024
Prochaine parution le : 24/05/2024 at 08:45 - May 2024

According to the business managers surveyed in April 2024, the business climate in services has darkened. At 100, the indicator that synthesizes it has lost three points and has reached back its long-term average. This deterioration is mainly the result of the decrease in the balance of opinion on the expected activity.

Business climate composite indicator

Business climate composite indicator
Business climate composite indicator
2024-04 100.1
2024-03 102.9
2024-02 99.7
2024-01 101.4
2023-12 100.1
2023-11 99.4
2023-10 99.9
2023-09 101.5
2023-08 101.6
2023-07 101.6
2023-06 101.9
2023-05 101.3
2023-04 103.0
2023-03 104.7
2023-02 105.2
2023-01 104.4
2022-12 103.5
2022-11 103.4
2022-10 104.4
2022-09 105.6
2022-08 106.5
2022-07 106.1
2022-06 107.5
2022-05 108.7
2022-04 108.3
2022-03 108.7
2022-02 111.6
2022-01 105.1
2021-12 107.1
2021-11 113.5
2021-10 112.5
2021-09 110.2
2021-08 108.7
2021-07 110.9
2021-06 112.4
2021-05 106.5
2021-04 91.4
2021-03 93.8
2021-02 87.5
2021-01 91.0
2020-12 89.3
2020-11 75.8
2020-10 87.3
2020-09 93.7
2020-08 93.5
2020-07 88.5
2020-06 77.6
2020-05 49.6
2020-04 38.7
2020-03 92.3
2020-02 105.7
2020-01 106.0
2019-12 106.4
2019-11 105.8
2019-10 105.2
2019-09 105.7
2019-08 105.1
2019-07 104.7
2019-06 105.6
2019-05 105.5
2019-04 105.6
2019-03 104.7
2019-02 103.6
2019-01 103.5
2018-12 101.8
2018-11 103.5
2018-10 102.9
2018-09 104.4
2018-08 104.0
2018-07 104.4
2018-06 104.4
2018-05 104.3
2018-04 105.9
2018-03 106.9
2018-02 106.8
2018-01 107.6
2017-12 108.7
2017-11 107.1
2017-10 106.4
2017-09 106.5
2017-08 106.3
2017-07 103.8
2017-06 103.2
2017-05 102.8
2017-04 103.2
2017-03 103.2
2017-02 102.9
2017-01 101.6
2016-12 103.5
2016-11 100.8
2016-10 100.7
2016-09 100.7
2016-08 100.1
2016-07 100.3
2016-06 99.1
2016-05 100.7
2016-04 98.2
2016-03 99.4
2016-02 99.8
2016-01 100.1
2015-12 97.0
2015-11 99.2
2015-10 99.4
2015-09 97.5
2015-08 98.5
2015-07 97.4
2015-06 96.8
2015-05 95.3
2015-04 93.9
2015-03 92.3
2015-02 91.4
2015-01 91.1
2014-12 91.3
2014-11 91.2
2014-10 91.1
2014-09 91.0
2014-08 91.5
2014-07 92.5
2014-06 92.2
2014-05 92.2
2014-04 93.2
2014-03 93.1
2014-02 92.1
2014-01 92.2
2013-12 90.8
2013-11 92.3
2013-10 91.7
2013-09 92.3
2013-08 88.6
2013-07 86.6
2013-06 85.9
2013-05 84.6
2013-04 83.3
2013-03 84.1
2013-02 87.1
2013-01 88.2
2012-12 87.1
2012-11 85.6
2012-10 86.1
2012-09 87.2
2012-08 87.4
2012-07 89.6
2012-06 90.1
2012-05 92.0
2012-04 95.6
2012-03 93.3
2012-02 92.0
2012-01 92.5
2011-12 94.6
2011-11 95.1
2011-10 97.2
2011-09 98.3
2011-08 100.5
2011-07 105.1
2011-06 107.1
2011-05 107.4
2011-04 108.8
2011-03 110.3
2011-02 109.1
2011-01 107.1
2010-12 106.7
2010-11 104.7
2010-10 102.8
2010-09 101.6
2010-08 100.6
2010-07 99.1
2010-06 98.3
2010-05 99.3
2010-04 97.7
2010-03 94.4
2010-02 94.3
2010-01 94.0
2009-12 92.6
2009-11 92.1
2009-10 90.6
2009-09 87.5
2009-08 84.2
2009-07 81.7
2009-06 77.9
2009-05 73.2
2009-04 69.1
2009-03 68.6
2009-02 73.7
2009-01 74.9
2008-12 77.5
2008-11 80.5
2008-10 84.4
2008-09 93.1
2008-08 95.1
2008-07 96.6
2008-06 100.9
2008-05 104.2
2008-04 106.7
2008-03 108.4
2008-02 108.4
2008-01 110.3
2007-12 108.9
2007-11 110.1
2007-10 110.0
2007-09 111.4
2007-08 112.2
2007-07 113.0
2007-06 112.5
2007-05 112.8
2007-04 112.9
2007-03 113.2
2007-02 112.3
2007-01 110.8
2006-12 111.2
2006-11 113.0
2006-10 110.7
2006-09 110.6
2006-08 110.4
2006-07 110.3
2006-06 109.1
2006-05 110.4
2006-04 107.7
2006-03 107.4
2006-02 106.2
2006-01 108.9
2005-12 106.9
2005-11 106.5
2005-10 108.3
2005-09 106.8
2005-08 107.2
2005-07 107.5
2005-06 108.2
2005-05 106.0
2005-04 107.9
2005-03 108.2
2005-02 106.3
2005-01 106.4

Business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

In April 2024, the opinion of the business managers on the business outlook has worsened

In April 2024, the business managers in services are more pessimistic than in the previous month about their personal business outlook: the balances of opinion on the expected activity and demand have both sharply retreated. They are also a little more pessimistic about the general business outlook for the sector: the corresponding balance of opinion has diminished a bit and has reached its long-term average. The balance of opinion related to the activity over the past three months has also diminished and has moved below its average level.

Concerning the selling prices, the balance related to their recent change has sharply risen, whereas the one on their expected change has retreated. Both remain well above their respective average.

The balance on the economic uncertainty felt is stable for its part.

Expected prices in services

Expected prices in services
Expected prices
2024-04 6.0
2024-03 8.7
2024-02 8.0
2024-01 6.2
2023-12 5.4
2023-11 4.5
2023-10 5.4
2023-09 8.6
2023-08 7.2
2023-07 6.2
2023-06 6.7
2023-05 7.3
2023-04 11.9
2023-03 14.5
2023-02 16.1
2023-01 18.6
2022-12 15.8
2022-11 13.2
2022-10 12.2
2022-09 11.2
2022-08 10.7
2022-07 10.8
2022-06 11.4
2022-05 10.3
2022-04 10.3
2022-03 8.0
2022-02 8.2
2022-01 7.1
2021-12 5.2
2021-11 7.0
2021-10 4.5
2021-09 3.9
2021-08 4.3
2021-07 3.7
2021-06 1.0
2021-05 -0.6
2021-04 -9.7
2021-03 -7.4
2021-02 -11.5
2021-01 -10.1
2020-12 -8.2
2020-11 -12.5
2020-10 -8.9
2020-09 -3.0
2020-08 -5.3
2020-07 -8.7
2020-06 -12.3
2020-05 -22.4
2020-04 -23.9
2020-03 -3.3
2020-02 0.4
2020-01 0.0
2019-12 0.2
2019-11 -0.1
2019-10 1.7
2019-09 -0.6
2019-08 -1.1
2019-07 0.0
2019-06 0.2
2019-05 -1.6
2019-04 -3.0
2019-03 -1.0
2019-02 -2.6
2019-01 -2.3
2018-12 0.1
2018-11 -2.5
2018-10 -2.8
2018-09 -1.5
2018-08 -0.6
2018-07 -6.8
2018-06 -4.9
2018-05 -1.8
2018-04 -3.2
2018-03 -3.4
2018-02 -3.7
2018-01 -2.4
2017-12 -3.4
2017-11 -2.7
2017-10 -2.4
2017-09 -1.7
2017-08 -5.6
2017-07 -7.0
2017-06 -4.5
2017-05 -4.8
2017-04 -5.4
2017-03 -3.7
2017-02 -3.7
2017-01 -6.3
2016-12 -5.5
2016-11 -7.7
2016-10 -6.8
2016-09 -4.8
2016-08 -5.2
2016-07 -4.7
2016-06 -6.8
2016-05 -6.2
2016-04 -4.9
2016-03 -5.1
2016-02 -4.6
2016-01 -8.5
2015-12 -8.9
2015-11 -5.8
2015-10 -5.9
2015-09 -7.5
2015-08 -6.4
2015-07 -6.9
2015-06 -6.1
2015-05 -6.2
2015-04 -7.8
2015-03 -9.8
2015-02 -9.7
2015-01 -11.4
2014-12 -11.0
2014-11 -10.3
2014-10 -9.5
2014-09 -10.6
2014-08 -9.0
2014-07 -9.2
2014-06 -9.3
2014-05 -9.9
2014-04 -9.6
2014-03 -10.8
2014-02 -11.0
2014-01 -8.4
2013-12 -9.4
2013-11 -8.5
2013-10 -10.1
2013-09 -10.4
2013-08 -10.7
2013-07 -12.3
2013-06 -12.0
2013-05 -12.3
2013-04 -12.3
2013-03 -12.0
2013-02 -11.9
2013-01 -9.8
2012-12 -9.2
2012-11 -9.6
2012-10 -11.0
2012-09 -7.6
2012-08 -7.8
2012-07 -4.3
2012-06 -6.0
2012-05 -5.6
2012-04 -4.2
2012-03 -0.7
2012-02 -3.4
2012-01 0.5
2011-12 -2.3
2011-11 -4.3
2011-10 -3.0
2011-09 -1.6
2011-08 -1.5
2011-07 -0.3
2011-06 0.5
2011-05 5.1
2011-04 2.4
2011-03 3.5
2011-02 3.3
2011-01 -0.1
2010-12 0.0
2010-11 -1.1
2010-10 -0.9
2010-09 -3.1
2010-08 -3.8
2010-07 -7.7
2010-06 -5.4
2010-05 -5.7
2010-04 -7.8
2010-03 -7.5
2010-02 -9.0
2010-01 -8.5
2009-12 -10.1
2009-11 -10.1
2009-10 -9.4
2009-09 -12.4
2009-08 -14.4
2009-07 -18.5
2009-06 -15.4
2009-05 -17.8
2009-04 -17.7
2009-03 -17.1
2009-02 -13.1
2009-01 -13.1
2008-12 -13.8
2008-11 -9.6
2008-10 -2.7
2008-09 0.3
2008-08 1.5
2008-07 3.4
2008-06 3.2
2008-05 3.4
2008-04 3.9
2008-03 2.6
2008-02 2.1
2008-01 2.2
2007-12 3.0
2007-11 2.7
2007-10 1.3
2007-09 2.3
2007-08 3.2
2007-07 3.4
2007-06 2.1
2007-05 2.9
2007-04 2.2
2007-03 1.5
2007-02 1.1
2007-01 1.8

Expected prices in services

  • Source: INSEE

In April 2024, the balance of opinion on the expected workforce size over the last three months has slightly increased and has moved closer to its average level. The one on the change in the workforce size over the next three months has sharply rebounded but remains below its own.

The share of business managers reporting difficulties in recruitment, falling since January 2023, has diminished again compared to January 2024, but remains above its long-term average.

Regarding the expected investment for the next three months, the corresponding quarterly balance of opinion has improved a little and stands just below its average again.

Concerning the obstacles preventing them from increasing their activity, the business managers in services are less numerous compared to January to report difficulties of supply only; this share has moved away from its long-term average. The proportion of business managers reporting difficulties of demand only is virtually stable compared to January, below its average.

The quarterly balance on the cash position is stable comparing to January 2024, just above its long-term average.

Economic outlook in the services sector

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Economic outlook in the services sector (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Average* Jan. 2024 Febr. 2024 March 2024 April 2024
Composite indicator 100 101 100 103 100
General outlook -7 -8 -7 -5 -7
Past activity 2 5 2 2 -1
Expected activity 2 2 0 5 -2
Expected demand 0 4 -1 5 2
Past selling prices -3 3 3 3 8
Expected selling prices -2 6 8 9 6
Past employment 2 -4 -6 -1 1
          Past employment except temporary work agencies 0 -3 -3 0 2
Expected employment 2 1 0 -7 0
          Expected employment except temporary work agencies 0 -4 2 -1 0
Cash position -11 -10 -10
Difficulties
          difficulties of supply and demand (in %) 9 7 7
          difficulties of supply only (in %) 24 23 20
          difficulties of demand only (in %) 28 17 18
Difficulties in recruitment (in %) 31 44 41
Expected investments 3 0 2
Economic uncertainty felt** 12 10 9 10 11
  • * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
  • ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

The business climate has deteriorated in information-communication and in professional, scientific and technical activities

The business climate indicator in information-communication, particularly high in the previous month, has retreated but remains above its long-term average. In particular, the balances of opinion on the expected activity, on the general business outlook and on the expected workforce size have sharply decreased.

In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate indicator has deteriorated too and has moved below its average level. This retreat results mainly from the sharp decrease of the balances of opinion on the general business outlook as well as on the expected activity and demand.

In road freight transport, the business climate indicator, rising since December 2023, has slightly increased but remains below its average level. It is particularly carried by the marked increase in the balances of opinion on the expected demand and in those on the activity and on the past workforce size; the balance on the expected workforce size has retreated for its part.

In real estate activities, the business climate indicator has slightly improved but remains below its long-term average. The balances of opinion on the workforce size, past as well as expected, have markedly rebounded and have returned to their average. Conversely, those on the expected activity and demand have sharply diminished and have moved away from their average

In administrative and support services, the business climate has slightly improved but still stands below its long-term average. The balance of opinion on the expected workforce size has sharply rebounded, after reaching a very low level in March, without reaching its average though. Conversely, the balances on the general business outlook and on the past activity have retreated.

Finally, the business climate in accommodation and food services has sharply improved in April and has reached its highest level since July 2023. The balances on the general business outlook, on the past and expected activity and on the expected demand have sharply increased. All of them stand well above their long-term average, except for the one on the expected activity which stands just below its own.

Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 Average* Jan. 2024 Febr. 2024 March 2024 April 2024
Road freight transport (8%)
Composite indicator 100 94 95 97 98
General outlook -18 -22 -28 -26 -27
Past activity -6 -19 -23 -16 -9
Expected activity -7 -16 -10 -12 -11
Expected demand -9 -20 -18 -12 -8
Past employment -5 -16 -20 -13 -5
Expected employment -6 -11 -11 -5 -9
Accommodation and food service activities (8%)
Composite indicator 100 96 100 100 105
General outlook -13 -13 -9 -10 -2
Past activity -7 -2 -7 11 18
Expected activity -7 -19 -15 -12 -8
Expected demand -9 -22 -12 -14 -5
Past employment -5 -8 3 7 8
Expected employment -6 6 -3 -12 -3
Information and communication (29%)
Composite indicator 100 104 103 109 102
General outlook 0 3 4 7 1
Past activity 8 27 12 6 -3
Expected activity 9 17 13 35 8
Expected demand 10 31 17 32 21
Past employment 6 -1 -2 5 5
Expected employment 10 3 7 17 11
Real estate activities (10%)
Composite indicator 100 92 91 97 98
General outlook -4 -11 -11 -6 -4
Past activity 6 0 1 4 4
Expected activity 6 1 -2 -1 -3
Expected demand 1 -4 -8 5 0
Past employment 3 0 -3 -4 3
Expected employment 3 -3 1 -2 3
Professional, scientific and technical activities (25%)
Composite indicator 100 101 99 101 97
General outlook -8 -4 -7 -5 -12
Past activity -1 -10 -8 -6 -6
Expected activity -2 -2 -5 -1 -8
Expected demand -5 -7 -7 -6 -9
Past employment 1 -2 -6 -1 0
Expected employment 1 2 2 1 -1
Administrative and support service activities (18%)
Composite indicator 100 97 96 96 97
General outlook -3 -6 -3 0 -2
Past activity 5 -2 -1 4 1
Expected activity 5 -1 -5 -3 0
Expected demand 3 0 -3 -4 -3
Past employment 7 -5 -11 -4 -9
Expected employment 7 0 7 -17 5
  • The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion. The “other services” sub-sector is not displayed due to its low weight.
  • *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

Revision

The business climate indicator in services of March 2024 has been revised upwards by one point (after rounding), mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.

For further information

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.

For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

The responses to this survey were collected between 27 March 2024 and 22 April 2024.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 24 May 2024 at 8:45 am.

Pour en savoir plus

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.

For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

The responses to this survey were collected between 27 March 2024 and 22 April 2024.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 24 May 2024 at 8:45 am.

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