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Informations Rapides · 25 April 2024 · n° 96
Informations rapidesIn April 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry has retreated sharply Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - April 2024

According to the business managers surveyed in April 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry has retreated sharply. The synthetic indicator is back to its long-period average (100). This withdrawal is mainly due to the balances of opinion associated with the level of the order books.

Informations rapides
No 96
Paru le :Paru le25/04/2024
Prochaine parution le : 24/05/2024 at 08:45 - May 2024
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According to the business managers surveyed in April 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry has retreated sharply. The synthetic indicator is back to its long-period average (100). This withdrawal is mainly due to the balances of opinion associated with the level of the order books.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
2024-04 100.0
2024-03 102.6
2024-02 100.6
2024-01 98.5
2023-12 99.3
2023-11 98.6
2023-10 98.8
2023-09 99.1
2023-08 96.8
2023-07 100.7
2023-06 100.1
2023-05 98.9
2023-04 100.9
2023-03 103.6
2023-02 103.3
2023-01 102.2
2022-12 101.4
2022-11 101.6
2022-10 103.7
2022-09 102.7
2022-08 103.3
2022-07 105.3
2022-06 107.3
2022-05 106.6
2022-04 107.9
2022-03 107.5
2022-02 111.2
2022-01 112.3
2021-12 109.2
2021-11 110.1
2021-10 108.0
2021-09 107.7
2021-08 109.5
2021-07 109.2
2021-06 107.3
2021-05 107.4
2021-04 103.8
2021-03 98.5
2021-02 97.0
2021-01 95.8
2020-12 94.9
2020-11 92.4
2020-10 95.0
2020-09 95.1
2020-08 91.3
2020-07 81.2
2020-06 76.6
2020-05 69.6
2020-04 66.3
2020-03 97.4
2020-02 100.1
2020-01 101.9
2019-12 99.1
2019-11 102.5
2019-10 100.2
2019-09 102.4
2019-08 101.9
2019-07 101.0
2019-06 101.8
2019-05 103.4
2019-04 101.1
2019-03 103.4
2019-02 102.8
2019-01 103.0
2018-12 103.6
2018-11 105.6
2018-10 104.8
2018-09 107.9
2018-08 108.6
2018-07 108.5
2018-06 109.4
2018-05 109.6
2018-04 110.3
2018-03 110.5
2018-02 112.3
2018-01 113.7
2017-12 112.1
2017-11 112.0
2017-10 111.8
2017-09 111.5
2017-08 110.0
2017-07 108.5
2017-06 108.9
2017-05 108.3
2017-04 108.3
2017-03 105.3
2017-02 106.5
2017-01 105.8
2016-12 105.8
2016-11 102.1
2016-10 102.1
2016-09 103.5
2016-08 101.5
2016-07 101.5
2016-06 101.4
2016-05 104.3
2016-04 104.7
2016-03 102.5
2016-02 102.9
2016-01 102.7
2015-12 102.5
2015-11 102.3
2015-10 103.1
2015-09 104.8
2015-08 103.5
2015-07 101.5
2015-06 100.2
2015-05 101.7
2015-04 101.4
2015-03 98.8
2015-02 98.3
2015-01 98.7
2014-12 98.6
2014-11 98.7
2014-10 97.3
2014-09 96.7
2014-08 96.5
2014-07 96.1
2014-06 96.4
2014-05 98.2
2014-04 100.2
2014-03 100.7
2014-02 98.2
2014-01 99.5
2013-12 99.2
2013-11 98.1
2013-10 97.8
2013-09 95.7
2013-08 98.4
2013-07 94.5
2013-06 92.5
2013-05 91.8
2013-04 87.3
2013-03 90.3
2013-02 90.2
2013-01 89.6
2012-12 90.6
2012-11 91.4
2012-10 86.7
2012-09 92.4
2012-08 92.6
2012-07 90.8
2012-06 92.9
2012-05 94.6
2012-04 95.4
2012-03 96.3
2012-02 94.7
2012-01 94.8
2011-12 94.5
2011-11 97.4
2011-10 97.2
2011-09 99.1
2011-08 101.2
2011-07 104.8
2011-06 109.9
2011-05 107.3
2011-04 110.2
2011-03 110.3
2011-02 107.0
2011-01 108.8
2010-12 104.2
2010-11 101.8
2010-10 104.1
2010-09 102.9
2010-08 100.4
2010-07 97.2
2010-06 95.7
2010-05 96.5
2010-04 95.0
2010-03 91.0
2010-02 88.5
2010-01 90.1
2009-12 87.3
2009-11 87.4
2009-10 84.9
2009-09 83.7
2009-08 80.6
2009-07 76.0
2009-06 74.4
2009-05 71.7
2009-04 69.9
2009-03 65.9
2009-02 67.8
2009-01 72.0
2008-12 72.8
2008-11 79.3
2008-10 86.7
2008-09 91.3
2008-08 97.9
2008-07 98.6
2008-06 103.3
2008-05 104.1
2008-04 107.4
2008-03 110.0
2008-02 110.3
2008-01 110.6
2007-12 112.6
2007-11 112.3
2007-10 110.0
2007-09 110.6
2007-08 111.0
2007-07 111.6
2007-06 111.3
2007-05 110.1
2007-04 112.0
2007-03 111.4
2007-02 111.8
2007-01 108.3
2006-12 109.2
2006-11 109.7
2006-10 107.2
2006-09 108.1
2006-08 108.5
2006-07 108.9
2006-06 108.6
2006-05 108.8
2006-04 107.9
2006-03 106.4
2006-02 106.5
2006-01 103.0
2005-12 104.1
2005-11 100.9
2005-10 101.0
2005-09 98.8
2005-08 99.5
2005-07 100.0
2005-06 98.9
2005-05 96.9
2005-04 96.4
2005-03 99.6
2005-02 103.1
2005-01 103.3

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.* Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24
Business climate 100 98 101 103 100
Past production 5 -8 0 1 0
Finished-goods inventory 12 12 7 7 11
Overall order books -18 -19 -17 -13 -19
Foreign order books -14 -8 -6 -5 -11
Past workforce size -8 3 3 3 3
Expected workforce size -9 6 4 5 4
Personal production expectations 6 7 4 10 9
General production expectations -7 -7 -8 -7 -7
Expected trend in selling prices 4 4 0 -1 3
Economic uncertainty felt** 29 32 24 28 28
  • * Long-term average since 1976 except for the economic uncertainty felt (April 2021).
  • ** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

The balances of opinion on the level of the order books have clearly retreated

In April 2024, the balances of opinion associated with the level of the order books, both overall and foreign, have clearly retreated. The one relative to the overall order books has gone back below its average while the one relative to the foreign order books remains above its. Nevertheless, the latter has reached its lowest level since September 2023.

The balance of opinion on the personal production expectations over the next three months has slightly decreased but remains above its average. The one relative to the general prospects of production in the industry is stable, at its average. Finally, the balance of opinion on the evolution of the production over the last three months has slightly decreased and has moved away from its average. The economic uncertainty felt by the business leaders is stable: the corresponding balance is just below its average.

The balance of opinion associated with the current level of finished-goods inventories has clearly increased and has set up just below its average.

Concerning the workforce size, the balances of opinion on the past and the expected change are almost stable and remain well above their average.

The balance of opinion related to the expected trend in selling prices over the next three months has rebounded and has set up just below its average.

The share of companies declaring being limited in their production by workforce shortage is stable and well above its average. The share of companies declaring sourcing difficulties as a factor limiting their production has decreased again and has moved closer to its average. In total, the share of companies declaring supply-side obstacles only has decreased: at 24%, it is almost back to its long-term average. Finally, the share of companies declaring difficulties of demand only has increased: at 28%, it is nonetheless well below its long-period average.

Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production*

Share of companies, in % of answers, SA
Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production* (Share of companies, in % of answers, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.** Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24
Difficulties of supply and demand 9 11 9 9 9
Sourcing difficulties 11 17 17 16 14
Workforce shortage 9 14 19 19 19
Difficulties of supply only 22 28 27 27 24
Difficulties of demand only 40 24 24 24 28
  • * Quaterly series from January 1991 then monthly series from May 2022
  • ** Long-term average since 1991 on monthly series (over the quarterly collection period, the point collected in the first month of each quarter was carried over identically to the following two months).
  • Sources : INSEE – Monthly business survey in industry

The business climate has retreated sharply in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods

In April 2024, the business climate indicator in the manufacture of food products and beverages is stable. It remains clearly below its long-period average. The balance of opinion on the current level of finished-goods inventories has highly rebounded and has gone back above its average.

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the synthetic indicator of the business climate has clearly retreated and has gone back below its average. This high fall concerns the sub-sectors of computer, electronic and optical products and of electrical equipment, while the fall has been softer in the sub-sector of machinery and equipment. In all of these sub-sectors, the change in climates is mainly explained by the falls of the balances of opinion on the level of the order books.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the synthetic indicator of the business climate has withdrawn but it remains above its average. In the sub-sector of “motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers”, it has highly withdrawn and has reached its lowest level since August 2022 while, in the sub-sector of “other transport equipment”, it has slightly increased and remains close to its higher level since the beginning of this data (1990). In the sub-sector of “motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers”, the balance of opinion associated with the evolution of the past production and the ones relative to the level of the order books have clearly decreased, particularly concerning the foreign order books.

Finally, the business climate in “other manufacturing” has slightly retreated. At 96, the synthetic indicator remains below its long-period average. It has slightly decreased in most of the sub-sectors.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2024-04 92.1 97.0 110.1 95.9
2024-03 92.2 103.0 112.2 96.6
2024-02 88.0 98.7 110.4 96.2
2024-01 86.5 99.2 111.8 93.9
2023-12 86.0 98.4 111.2 95.2
2023-11 85.3 103.4 110.6 93.9
2023-10 84.3 100.6 112.3 94.4
2023-09 87.7 104.3 104.0 95.6
2023-08 87.5 101.3 103.2 95.2
2023-07 91.6 106.2 112.0 94.5
2023-06 85.9 105.4 105.2 94.7
2023-05 92.7 105.9 103.3 95.1
2023-04 94.1 109.7 103.0 97.9
2023-03 99.2 112.2 103.9 98.9
2023-02 102.5 110.0 103.9 96.2
2023-01 100.2 111.3 103.0 96.3
2022-12 99.5 111.8 102.1 95.9
2022-11 104.1 110.6 103.8 95.5
2022-10 107.9 113.4 105.6 96.5
2022-09 106.6 111.1 100.5 98.4
2022-08 107.0 111.9 100.5 99.7
2022-07 106.9 112.5 105.5 101.6
2022-06 106.4 111.9 102.0 105.6
2022-05 107.2 111.5 101.1 104.9
2022-04 109.2 113.1 101.2 108.8
2022-03 111.2 112.4 99.9 107.9
2022-02 111.3 114.8 103.8 111.3
2022-01 111.7 115.9 104.6 110.4
2021-12 116.3 116.2 91.3 112.2
2021-11 115.2 116.1 97.5 113.5
2021-10 112.6 115.5 91.4 111.3
2021-09 109.2 115.7 90.1 112.9
2021-08 111.1 118.7 92.9 113.1
2021-07 114.0 114.9 92.2 114.6
2021-06 116.0 115.2 89.9 110.7
2021-05 116.4 111.6 89.7 110.5
2021-04 105.7 112.8 88.6 107.4
2021-03 101.3 106.4 83.6 104.1
2021-02 94.7 105.2 88.9 101.2
2021-01 91.4 103.5 87.1 100.3
2020-12 89.3 95.3 88.9 101.7
2020-11 92.7 91.2 90.9 94.8
2020-10 93.7 93.2 92.2 95.5
2020-09 102.2 90.3 93.2 92.7
2020-08 96.7 89.5 90.9 88.0
2020-07 88.2 85.0 80.0 81.2
2020-06 90.9 79.2 76.1 78.6
2020-05 91.7 76.6 74.5 73.8
2020-04 93.1 76.8 72.2 72.6
2020-03 108.4 98.3 95.0 97.1
2020-02 107.8 99.0 99.2 100.0
2020-01 107.9 99.9 105.1 99.1
2019-12 107.5 97.2 100.8 97.7
2019-11 104.5 98.1 107.3 100.9
2019-10 105.2 96.0 101.8 99.5
2019-09 108.2 99.6 102.5 101.6
2019-08 108.8 98.7 101.3 101.8
2019-07 102.9 102.9 99.7 100.3
2019-06 108.6 98.8 100.4 100.8
2019-05 111.2 103.9 101.9 102.2
2019-04 107.0 100.9 100.3 100.7
2019-03 108.0 100.4 102.3 101.3
2019-02 108.0 104.4 99.7 101.1
2019-01 107.7 102.5 102.0 101.9
2018-12 107.9 102.5 103.3 102.2
2018-11 108.8 102.0 105.3 102.8
2018-10 102.1 106.2 104.7 103.3
2018-09 107.8 107.5 105.9 105.1
2018-08 107.9 106.8 106.6 105.8
2018-07 107.3 107.9 106.8 106.5
2018-06 109.5 107.5 109.8 105.7
2018-05 108.1 110.7 108.1 107.7
2018-04 109.9 109.0 111.5 107.5
2018-03 109.2 109.3 111.2 109.2
2018-02 109.7 110.1 111.8 110.0
2018-01 111.1 111.4 112.0 111.0
2017-12 111.4 111.0 111.1 110.5
2017-11 111.9 109.7 110.4 111.3
2017-10 111.5 108.9 109.4 111.0
2017-09 107.1 107.5 110.1 108.9
2017-08 108.7 105.7 108.8 108.3
2017-07 109.3 108.6 109.2 106.9
2017-06 111.7 108.2 105.0 108.5
2017-05 105.6 108.2 105.2 106.9
2017-04 105.0 106.3 104.3 107.7
2017-03 104.1 104.0 104.8 104.5
2017-02 105.1 103.4 105.9 106.2
2017-01 103.6 101.5 106.4 105.5
2016-12 108.5 103.1 104.8 104.8
2016-11 107.8 99.5 102.2 101.4
2016-10 106.6 97.3 106.0 101.1
2016-09 109.0 98.4 105.4 100.4
2016-08 99.4 98.2 104.1 101.3
2016-07 104.5 97.5 105.4 101.6
2016-06 103.1 97.1 106.1 101.4
2016-05 103.3 97.2 106.0 103.7
2016-04 105.9 99.9 109.3 101.1
2016-03 101.5 99.1 106.0 101.1
2016-02 100.2 100.7 109.2 99.8
2016-01 101.6 100.6 108.2 99.4
2015-12 100.0 98.0 108.0 101.6
2015-11 102.4 99.6 107.9 99.4
2015-10 104.3 98.1 108.1 99.8
2015-09 105.5 96.0 109.3 102.5
2015-08 103.2 97.2 108.3 101.4
2015-07 108.4 98.3 105.0 102.7
2015-06 105.0 97.1 105.4 100.8
2015-05 101.8 97.2 105.0 101.4
2015-04 104.7 96.6 107.2 100.5
2015-03 100.8 94.2 105.3 100.0
2015-02 99.4 94.9 100.8 100.1
2015-01 103.2 93.3 101.5 99.6
2014-12 99.2 92.0 99.6 100.1
2014-11 96.1 92.0 100.1 99.7
2014-10 95.6 92.5 97.2 98.4
2014-09 94.3 92.1 100.9 97.1
2014-08 95.6 93.3 97.8 100.4
2014-07 97.1 89.1 99.0 98.9
2014-06 95.6 91.7 98.1 98.4
2014-05 98.1 93.6 98.0 99.3
2014-04 95.9 92.7 102.7 100.1
2014-03 99.7 92.8 100.7 102.3
2014-02 99.1 93.7 98.2 98.2
2014-01 99.3 91.1 102.2 98.6
2013-12 98.2 91.8 99.7 99.0
2013-11 98.1 92.2 102.2 98.6
2013-10 95.5 90.2 103.6 97.6
2013-09 94.9 89.9 97.4 97.0
2013-08 95.4 91.5 101.3 97.0
2013-07 92.4 89.5 98.6 94.8
2013-06 92.6 89.1 94.6 93.1
2013-05 91.5 89.3 94.9 91.6
2013-04 91.6 89.5 92.7 89.0
2013-03 93.9 88.8 93.5 91.1
2013-02 97.9 88.8 94.3 90.1
2013-01 97.5 87.9 92.7 91.1
2012-12 98.6 87.5 92.2 91.7
2012-11 98.1 87.2 92.8 92.1
2012-10 90.9 86.1 95.8 89.2
2012-09 96.7 91.0 97.4 93.5
2012-08 93.7 90.2 95.2 93.3
2012-07 94.5 90.8 95.3 92.1
2012-06 94.9 90.9 95.6 93.5
2012-05 93.3 94.8 95.0 95.7
2012-04 99.0 95.7 94.2 97.7
2012-03 102.4 96.4 103.1 97.0
2012-02 100.4 96.1 93.8 95.8
2012-01 99.7 96.1 94.8 94.0
2011-12 98.4 96.0 100.1 94.4
2011-11 102.0 95.9 102.6 94.0
2011-10 104.3 98.2 100.2 96.2
2011-09 101.8 99.4 98.7 98.0
2011-08 103.4 100.3 101.9 100.3
2011-07 111.4 102.3 103.7 104.9
2011-06 108.5 104.1 109.4 108.8
2011-05 109.7 103.1 105.2 107.6
2011-04 108.9 104.5 105.9 110.0
2011-03 106.6 106.3 106.3 109.7
2011-02 107.2 101.8 99.3 108.4
2011-01 108.9 103.8 105.1 105.2

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) and [A38 and A64] Weights** (%) Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 20 88 92 92
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 99 103 97
          [CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 4 105 108 101
          [CJ] Electrical equipment 3 97 107 98
          [CK] Machinery and equipment 5 96 97 94
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 19 110 112 110
          [CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 9 99 100 95
          [CL2] Other transport equipment 10 116 116 117
(C5) Other manufacturing 45 96 97 96
          [CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 104 103 102
          [CC] Wood, paper, printing 4 92 95 96
          [CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 93 94 92
          [CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 86 89 88
          [CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 98 93 92
          [CM] Other manufacturing industries / Manufacture of other industrial products 10 104 107 108
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sectors’ balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Revisions

The business climate in manufacturing industry of March 2024 has been revised upwards by one point (after rounding). This revision is mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.

For further information

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 27 March 2024 and 22 April 2024.

Next issue: 24 May 2024 at 8:45 am.

Documentation

Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)

Abbreviated methodology (pdf,157 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 27 March 2024 and 22 April 2024.

Next issue: 24 May 2024 at 8:45 am.

: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr
:

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Time series : Industry - Activity and demand

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